Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.01, read 2026-11-05
Ethical passes the values gate
Price10.42 USD
Fair valueUnder review
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Distribution11.29-7.7% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 17% slide in 2 days
2026-11-03Read Markdown13.61-23.4% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 13% slide in 9 days
2026-10-25Read Distribution15.68-33.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-10-18Read Markdown16.02-35.0% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 14% slide in 7 days
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Target Hospitality Corp. holds its Distribution at $10.42. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 63 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 63 days
Price at the screen
$10.42
Valuation
N/A trailing · 12.37 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.54
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
2.02%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 2.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
12.17%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 12.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.73%
Below 5%
Only 0.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Target Hospitality clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 2%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when TH's ethical verdict changes
Today TH passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Fair value under review. Our model's value is 2.08x the price, above our 2.00x limit. We show no fair value, margin of safety or value read built on it until the review clears.
Where our models see it going: no fair-value estimate yet, range not available, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Remote worker housing fails every value test
Picture crews arriving at remote energy or construction sites needing beds, meals and laundry for months on end. Target Hospitality supplies those temporary villages across North America, yet the numbers show a business still losing money at scale. Revenue edges up just 4 percent while profit margins sit at minus 13 percent and return on equity is minus 11 percent.
At 23.4 times forward earnings the shares trade well above our fair value of 15.05 dollars against a current price of 16.36 dollars, delivering a negative margin of safety and an opportunity rating of none. The ethical screen passes cleanly, but that alone cannot offset thin growth, unknown competitive protection and persistent losses.
Analyst targets cluster near 22 dollars on a strong buy consensus, yet those forecasts sit atop a balance sheet that has yet to prove it can convert demand into sustained profit. Cyclical exposure to project work adds further uncertainty around any recovery in margins.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TH trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-06Distribution$10.42-7.7%Entry 18
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 144%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 22.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 144%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Markdown$14.49+6.5%Entry 16
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 6.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 144%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Markdown · changed$13.61-0.4%Entry 15
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 144%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Distribution$13.67+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 144%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Distribution$13.67+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 144%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Distribution$13.67-4.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 144%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Distribution$14.24+0.9%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 144%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Distribution$14.11-10.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 10.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 144%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 144%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
