Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.14, read 2026-11-04
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price61.92 USD
Fair value109.05
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Distribution63.32-2.2% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Distribution after a 21% slide in 7 days
2026-10-29Read Accumulation80.41-23.0% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 16% slide in 9 weeks
2026-08-25Read Markdown95.35-35.1% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 7% rise in 8 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup88.88-30.3% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Cimpress plc holds its Distribution at $61.92. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$61.92
Valuation
18.20 trailing · 11.25 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.88
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
86.74%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 86.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
15.36%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 15.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Cimpress's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 87% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 42% discount to our $109.05 fair value, 8.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 43.2% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $109.05, with a range of $84.45 to $126.64, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Custom printing orders rarely turn into profits
Picture a small business ordering branded mugs for a trade show. The order gets routed through a tangle of regional printers and fulfilment houses that few global platforms were built to handle. Cimpress sits in that middle layer, stitching Vista and its other brands into a mass customisation network across North America and Europe. Yet with revenue growing only 12 percent and a profit margin stuck at 1 percent, the business is not converting volume into meaningful cash.
Forward earnings sit at 18.3 times while the shares trade 9 percent below our fair value. That slim gap and an unknown competitive moat explain why the opportunity rating stays at none, even though the ethical screen clears. Two analysts offer little consensus beyond a median target that matches our own valuation.
Low returns leave little room for execution slips or rising input costs. The shares could stay range-bound until margins improve meaningfully. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Ireland and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CMPR trades on Nasdaq (the company is based in Ireland). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 21.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 94%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $112.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 94%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $112.
2026-10-22Markdown$81.17+9.4%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 9.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 94%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $112.
2026-10-15Markdown$74.21-6.9%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 38% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 94%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $112.
2026-10-02Markdown$79.75-16.4%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 16.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 38% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 94%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $112.
2026-08-25Markdown · changed$95.35-2.5%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 38% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 94%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $112.
2026-07-25Markup$97.78+10.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 10.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 38% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 94%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $112.
2026-07-18Markup$88.88+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 38% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 94%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $112.
2026-07-03Markup$88.88+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$88.88Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
