Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.70, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price244.04 USD
Fair value195.41
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-21Read Markup229.65+6.3% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup after an 8% rise in 3 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markdown212.10+15.1% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown with results news in the headlines
2026-09-11Read Accumulation221.63+10.1% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation after a 6% rise in 10 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution210.04+16.2% to today First review on file: Distribution with results news in the headlines
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Republic Services holds its Markup at $244.04. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 6 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-30
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 6 days
Price at the screen
$244.04
Valuation
33.51 trailing · 29.28 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.40
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
40.17%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 40.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
2.37%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
5.74%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 5.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.05%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Republic Services's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 40% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-01. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today RSG does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades above our $195.41 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 4.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-30 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 19.9% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $195.41, with a range of $187.20 to $224.72, dated to the 2026-10-30 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Waste collector priced beyond its modest growth
Republic Services collects the rubbish that cities and factories generate week after week, yet the shares price the business like a premium compounder. Forward earnings sit at 27.6 times while revenue edges up only 3 percent a year and margins rest at 13 percent, so the 10 percent premium to our fair value leaves no margin of safety.
The ethical screen fails on debt levels alone, which rules the name out regardless of the moderate moat or 18 percent return on equity. Steady cash flows from waste disposal do not offset the stretched multiple or the absence of any ethical pass.
Twenty-four analysts may still cluster around a 250 dollar target, but the numbers show a business valued for perfection that its growth cannot deliver. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
RSG trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-29Markup$240.45+4.7%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $244. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markup$229.65+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $244. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markup$229.65+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $244. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markup$229.65+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $244. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markup$229.65+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $244. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markup$229.65+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $244. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markup$229.65+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $244. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markup$229.65+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $244. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markup · changed$229.65+5.9%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $244.
2026-10-14Markdown$216.88+2.3%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $244.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
