Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.38, read 2026-10-29
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price93.33 USD
Fair value68.86
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-25Read Markup93.07+0.3% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 19% rise in 2 weeks
2026-10-11Read Distribution78.07+19.5% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-10-02Read Markdown78.07+19.5% to today Markup gives way to Markdown after a 13% slide in 13 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup89.37+4.4% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Casella Waste Systems, Inc. holds its Markup at $93.33. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 13 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-30
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 13 days
Price at the screen
$93.33
Valuation
1,034.11 trailing · 64.81 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.78
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
37.51%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 37.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
9.14%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 9.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.54%
Below 5%
Only 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Casella Waste Systems,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 38% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-01. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-30 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 26.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +17% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $68.86, with a range of $68.86 to $79.19, dated to the 2026-10-30 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Waste hauler priced like a growth star
Every time a household in New England wheels a bin to the kerb, the collection route looks steady enough. Casella runs a solid regional waste network with 10% revenue growth, yet the business shows zero profit margin and zero return on equity. At 63.5 times forward earnings the market is paying a premium that the current numbers simply do not support.
We pass. The shares trade 26% above our fair value of 70.81 dollars and the opportunity rating sits at none. Analyst targets may sit higher, but those forecasts rest on future margin recovery that has yet to appear in the reported figures.
High multiples on zero profitability leave little room for disappointment. Any slip in volumes or cost inflation would widen the gap between price and value quickly. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CWST trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-02Markup$93.33+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $112. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Markup$93.33+0.3%Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $112. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-25Markup · changed$93.07+7.6%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $112. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-18Distribution$86.50+10.8%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 10.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $112. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $112. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$78.07-16.4%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 16.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $112. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-08-26Markup$93.43-2.4%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $112. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-26Markup$95.70+7.1%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $112.
2026-07-18Markup$89.37+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $112.
2026-07-03Markup$89.37+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
