Casella Waste Systems, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a vertically integrated solid waste services company in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
89.91 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-11
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Casella Waste Systems, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $89.91. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 22 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 22 days
Price at the screen
$89.91
Valuation
1,123.88 trailing · 61.28 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.74
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
37.51%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 37.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
9.14%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 9.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.54%
Below 5%
Only 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 21.7% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +24% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Waste hauler priced like a growth star
Every time a household in New England wheels a bin to the kerb, the collection route looks steady enough. Casella runs a solid regional waste network with 10% revenue growth, yet the business shows zero profit margin and zero return on equity. At 63.5 times forward earnings the market is paying a premium that the current numbers simply do not support.
We pass. The shares trade 26% above our fair value of 70.81 dollars and the opportunity rating sits at none. Analyst targets may sit higher, but those forecasts rest on future margin recovery that has yet to appear in the reported figures.
High multiples on zero profitability leave little room for disappointment. Any slip in volumes or cost inflation would widen the gap between price and value quickly. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CWST trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-26Markup$93.43-2.4%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $112. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-26Markup$95.70+7.1%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $112.
2026-07-18Markup$89.37+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $112.
2026-07-03Markup$89.37+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$89.37Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
