NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,412+0.27%BTC$77,965+2.04%VIX15.48+0.26%live tape · as of 17:00 UTC
The Screen · Industrials · Waste Management
Waste Management
WM · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $87.0B · 60,500 employees
Waste Management, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides environmental solutions to residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
217.78 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 17:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Waste Management holds its Markdown at $217.78. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 53 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 53 days
Price at the screen
$217.78
Valuation
30.80 trailing · 23.88 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.43
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
49.98%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 50.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.70%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
7.93%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 7.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 2% discount to our $222.69 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 4.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 2.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 25 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +21% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Bins fill daily but debt weighs heavy
Think of the trucks that rumble through every suburb before dawn, hauling away what households and factories no longer want. Waste Management runs that essential service across North America and beyond, yet the shares sit 7 percent above our fair value at $239 while forward earnings trade at 26 times for just 4 percent revenue growth.
We pass because the numbers do not add up. A 30 percent return on equity and 11 percent margins look solid on the surface, yet the modest growth and moderate moat do not justify paying a premium that leaves no margin of safety. The ethical screen also flags a clear fail on the debt ratio, which rules the name out regardless of what 25 analysts say.
High leverage adds real vulnerability when interest rates stay elevated or volumes soften, and the market price already bakes in more optimism than the growth profile supports. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
WM trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-28Distribution$224.92-5.8%Entry 12
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $256.
2026-07-27Distribution$238.75+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $256. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Distribution$238.75+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $256. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Distribution$238.75-0.2%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $256. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Distribution$239.31+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $256. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Distribution$239.31+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $256. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Distribution$239.31+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $256. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Distribution$239.31+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $256. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Distribution$239.31+8.6%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 8.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $256. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Distribution$220.40+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $256.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.