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The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas Drilling
Transocean Ltd.
RIG · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $6.1B · 5,220 employees
Transocean Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides offshore contract drilling services for oil and gas wells in Switzerland and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
5.10 USD
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 18:01 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price5.10 USD at the 5 Nov 2026 close
Our value readOvervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026
Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-14
Options put/call open interest 1.65, read 2026-11-05
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price5.10 USD
Fair value4.12
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-25Read Accumulation5.82-12.4% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-18Read Markdown5.58-8.6% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 6% rise in 7 days
2026-10-11Read Distribution5.24-2.7% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-10-02Read Markdown5.24-2.7% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 9% slide in 3 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Transocean Ltd. holds its Markup at $5.10. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 9 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 9 days
Price at the screen
$5.10
Valuation
12.67 trailing · 18.40 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.42
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
38.17%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 38.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
7.42%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 7.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.01%
Below 5%
Only 1.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Transocean's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 38% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today RIG does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $4.12 fair value estimate.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 23.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +27% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $4.12, with a range of $4.05 to $4.73, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Oil rigs chase booms that rarely last
Picture an oil platform bobbing in rough seas while crude prices swing like a pendulum. Transocean sits right in that path, offering contract drilling services to explorers who only drill when prices justify it. The business shows 19% revenue growth yet still posts a negative 67% profit margin and negative 30% return on equity, which tells you the cycle has not turned in its favour.
We pass because this is classic cyclical value trap territory. A forward multiple of 17.8 times earnings does not look cheap when margins remain deeply negative and the market already prices the shares above our fair value. Twelve analysts sit on a hold rating with a median target of six dollars, offering little conviction that earnings will stabilise soon.
Currency swings, rig utilisation and oil price shocks remain the real drivers here, none of which are predictable. The ethical screen clears, yet the financial picture stays too fragile for comfort. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Switzerland and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
RIG trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Switzerland). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Accumulation$6.94+19.2%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 19.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6.
2026-10-25Accumulation · changed$5.82+4.3%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6. Since the last review it dropped out of the Titan Ethical 500.
2026-10-18Markdown · changed$5.58+6.5%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 6.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6.
2026-10-11Distribution · changed$5.24+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$5.24-8.9%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 8.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 11.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6.
2026-08-11Distribution$5.16-14.6%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 14.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6.
2026-07-18Distribution$6.04+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6.
2026-07-03Distribution$6.04+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$6.04Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
