Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price83.93 USD
Fair value67.21
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-06Read Accumulation91.66-8.4% to today
2026-08-06Read Distribution83.89+0.0% to today
2026-07-02Read Accumulation101.63-17.4% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Nabors Industries Ltd. holds its Markdown at $83.93. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 263 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 263 days
Price at the screen
$83.93
Valuation
5.66 trailing · 20.11 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.02
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
52.29%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 52.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
27.82%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 27.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.88%
Below 5%
Only 0.9% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 19.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +31% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Oil Rigs Chase Booms That Rarely Last
Every time crude prices spike, drilling contractors like Nabors race to put rigs back to work in the shale patches and offshore fields. The business follows the same pattern it always has, with revenue up just 6 percent lately and a forward multiple of 20.4 times earnings that already prices in better days ahead.
We pass because the shares sit 13 percent above our fair value and the opportunity rating is none. Profit margins sit at 7 percent with an ROE of 22 percent, yet eight analysts still cluster around a hold rating and the ethical screen raises no flags.
The real issue is the cycle itself. Peak earnings often arrive just as multiples compress, turning what looks like a reasonable price into a trap once rig demand fades. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to Bermuda and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NBR trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Bermuda). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 9.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 48% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 201%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $108.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 17.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 48% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 201%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $108.
2026-07-18Accumulation$101.63+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 48% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 201%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $108.
2026-07-03Accumulation$101.63+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$101.63Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
