Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.00, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price13.00 USD
Fair value12.45
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Markup13.57-4.2% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 29% rise in 10 days
2026-10-26Read Accumulation10.48+24.0% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 15% rise in 4 days
2026-10-22Read Markup9.10+42.9% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup with results news in the headlines
2026-10-11Read Accumulation9.41+38.2% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 14% slide in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The RealReal, Inc. holds its Markup at $13.00. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 11 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 11 days
Price at the screen
$13.00
Valuation
N/A trailing · 39.75 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
2.89
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
113.26%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 113.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
42.80%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 42.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.61%
Below 5%
Only 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
The RealReal,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 113% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $12.45 fair value estimate, 18.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 4.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +38% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $12.45, with a range of $12.45 to $14.32, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Luxury resale platform priced well above fair value
Selling used designer bags online feels like a clever idea until the numbers land. The RealReal runs a marketplace for pre owned luxury goods yet still posts a negative nine percent profit margin while trading at a forward multiple of fifty times earnings. With revenue growth at eighteen percent the business has yet to prove it can scale profitably in a sector tied to discretionary spending cycles.
We pass because the shares sit three percent above our fair value estimate and carry an opportunity rating of none. Unknown competitive moat plus ongoing losses leave little room for error even though the ethical screen clears. Analyst targets sit higher but offer no guarantee once fashion cycles turn.
High valuation on unprofitable operations creates real downside if consumer spending slows or competition intensifies. Currency and inventory risks in luxury resale add further pressure that the current price does not appear to discount. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
REAL trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Markup · changed$13.57+25.2%Entry 17
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 25.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $17.
2026-10-29Accumulation$10.84+3.4%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $17. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$10.48+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $17. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$10.48+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $17. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $17. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markup$10.48+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $17. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markup$10.48+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $17. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markup$10.48+15.2%Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 15.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $17. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markup · changed$9.10+0.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $17. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Accumulation$9.10-3.3%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 3.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $17.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.