Burberry Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in manufacturing, retail, and wholesale of luxury goods under the Burberry brand in the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, India, Africa, and the Americas.
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Burberry Group plc holds its Markdown at $13.85. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 22 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 22 days
Price at the screen
$13.85
Valuation
173.13 trailing · 18.89 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 85.7
Beta
0.69
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
29.28%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 29.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
8.56%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 8.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 20% discount to our $16.59 fair value, weak competitive moat, 0.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 19.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +23% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Burberry's brand has lost its edge
Picture a once-sharp trench coat hanging in the wardrobe, still recognisable but no longer turning heads at the right tables. Burberry sits in that spot today. Revenue barely growing at 1 percent, a profit margin of just 1 percent and return on equity stuck at 2 percent tell the story of a business that is treading water in a crowded luxury market. The forward multiple of 19.8 times offers no cushion for those thin returns, and the weak moat leaves it exposed to faster rivals. We pass.
Even a modest margin of safety to fair value does not change the arithmetic. Two analysts rate the shares a hold with a median target near the current price, and the cyclical nature of luxury spending adds another layer of uncertainty. Peak earnings in this sector often look cheap on paper until demand fades and the multiple compresses further. Ethical clearance removes one concern, yet it cannot fix the underlying numbers.
Competition from sharper labels and shifting consumer tastes in Asia and Europe keep the pressure on. Any recovery will need more than a new campaign. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to United Kingdom and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BURBY trades on PNK (the company is based in United Kingdom). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 13.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-07-24Distribution$14.12-4.1%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-07-18Distribution$14.72+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-07-03Distribution$14.72+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$14.72Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
