Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.04, read 2026-11-05
Ethical passes the values gate
Price17.39 USD
Fair value16.32
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-03Read Accumulation19.29-9.8% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown18.91-8.0% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 5% slide in 4 weeks
2026-09-06Read Accumulation19.94-12.8% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation with volume flow in agreement
2026-08-07Read Markdown19.90-12.6% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 6% slide in 5 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
NOV Inc. holds its Markdown at $17.39. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 83 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 83 days
Price at the screen
$17.39
Valuation
43.98 trailing · 14.31 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.95
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
20.72%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 20.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
28.81%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 28.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.58%
Below 5%
Only 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
NOV clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 21%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when NOV's ethical verdict changes
Today NOV passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $16.32 fair value estimate, 2.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 6.6% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 20 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +27% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $16.32, with a range of $16.20 to $18.77, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Drilling equipment maker caught in the cycle
Picture the oil patch on a good day, rigs spinning and crews ordering kit like there is no tomorrow. NOV builds the gear that makes those days possible, yet its revenue is already shrinking 2 percent and margins sit at just 1 percent. The shares trade at 15 times forward earnings and above our fair value, so the low multiple is not a bargain, it is a warning that peak cycle earnings are already in the price.
We pass. The business clears our ethical screen, yet the numbers show thin returns on equity at 2 percent and no visible moat to protect margins when the next downturn arrives. Analyst targets sit higher, but that optimism rests on the same boom and bust pattern the sector has repeated for decades.
The real risk is the classic cyclical trap. Low growth and weak profitability can stay that way for years once spending slows, and currency or customer concentration can turn a modest dip into something sharper. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NOV trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-10-27Markdown$18.96+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markdown$18.96+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$18.96+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markdown$18.96+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$18.96+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown$18.96+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$18.96+1.7%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Markdown$18.64-1.7%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14Markdown$18.97+0.3%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
