Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
NOV Inc. holds its Markdown at $21.10. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 264 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 264 days
Price at the screen
$21.10
Valuation
78.15 trailing · 16.49 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.94
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
20.72%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 20.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
28.81%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 28.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.58%
Below 5%
Only 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 22.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 19 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +4% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Drilling equipment maker caught in the cycle
Picture the oil patch on a good day, rigs spinning and crews ordering kit like there is no tomorrow. NOV builds the gear that makes those days possible, yet its revenue is already shrinking 2 percent and margins sit at just 1 percent. The shares trade at 15 times forward earnings and above our fair value, so the low multiple is not a bargain, it is a warning that peak cycle earnings are already in the price.
We pass. The business clears our ethical screen, yet the numbers show thin returns on equity at 2 percent and no visible moat to protect margins when the next downturn arrives. Analyst targets sit higher, but that optimism rests on the same boom and bust pattern the sector has repeated for decades.
The real risk is the classic cyclical trap. Low growth and weak profitability can stay that way for years once spending slows, and currency or customer concentration can turn a modest dip into something sharper. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NOV trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-08-07Markdown · changed$19.90-5.8%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-07-18Markup$21.13+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-07-03Markup$21.13+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$21.13Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
