NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,416+0.37%BTC$81,118+6.17%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 13:00 UTC
The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
Archrock, Inc.
AROC · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $5.7B · 1,350 employees
Archrock, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy infrastructure company in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
32.77 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-11
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Archrock, Inc. holds its Distribution at $32.77. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$32.77
Valuation
17.62 trailing · 14.97 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.86
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
55.67%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 55.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.31%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 6.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +30% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Oil services look cheap until the rigs stop
Picture a contractor whose entire book of work vanishes the moment oil prices dip below the cost of drilling a new well. Archrock owns and runs the compressors that keep natural gas flowing, yet its revenue still tracks the same boom-and-bust rhythm as every other oilfield supplier. At a 15.5 times forward multiple the shares do not scream expensive, but the 8 percent revenue growth and 21 percent margins sit at levels history shows only near cycle peaks.
We pass because the stock already trades 15 percent above our fair value and the industry is classic cyclical. Strong 23 percent ROE and an ethical screen that clears do not change the fact that earnings are inflated by the current drilling upswing. When capex budgets are cut, those returns compress quickly and the low multiple offers no cushion.
Analyst targets sit higher still, yet that consensus has repeatedly failed to spot the turn in prior cycles. Peak earnings dressed up as a bargain is the precise trap this sector keeps setting. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AROC trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 10.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $42.
2026-07-21Markdown$37.14+1.4%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $42.
2026-07-18Markdown$36.61+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $42.
2026-07-17Markdown$36.61+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $42.
2026-07-03Markdown$36.61+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$36.61Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
