Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.42, read 2026-11-05
Ethical passes the values gate
Price3.30 USD
Fair value3.54
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-06Read Markdown4.68-29.5% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 10% slide in 5 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution5.21-36.7% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
NIO Inc ADR holds its Markdown at $3.30. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 143 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 143 days
Price at the screen
$3.30
Valuation
N/A trailing · 26.42 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.92
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
25.13%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 25.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
1.34%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.18%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.87%
Below 5%
Only 0.9% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
NIO clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 25%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today NIO passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 7% discount to our $3.54 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 69.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 6.8% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $3.54, with a range of $3.54 to $4.07, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
China EV Growth Story Hits Valuation Wall
Picture a packed Shanghai showroom where sleek electric SUVs draw crowds yet the books show red ink month after month. NIO sells the dream of smart mobility across China and Europe but still posts a negative nine percent profit margin and negative eighty four percent return on equity.
We pass. Revenue may be doubling yet the forward multiple sits at twenty eight times earnings for a narrow moat business already trading above our fair value with no margin of safety. In a cyclical sector that pattern often signals peak enthusiasm rather than a bargain.
The real danger lies in China demand swings and cash burn that can turn a growth story into a value trap overnight. Twenty four analysts may say buy but the numbers do not back it. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to China and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NIO trades on the NYSE (the company is based in China). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Markdown$3.21-2.4%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-10-25Markdown$3.29-6.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-10-18Markdown$3.50+2.6%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-10-11Markdown$3.41-7.1%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-10-02Markdown$3.67-4.9%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-09-06Markdown$3.86-17.5%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 17.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-08-06Markdown · changed$4.68-10.2%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 10.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-07-18Distribution$5.21+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-07-03Distribution$5.21+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$5.21Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.