Screened 2026-09-03 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
XPeng Inc ADR holds its Markdown at $11.14. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 497 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-03
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 497 days
Price at the screen
$11.14
Valuation
N/A trailing · 60.63 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.12
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
18.95%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 19.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
4.48%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 4.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
18.73%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 18.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.52%
Below 5%
Only 1.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 5.7% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 26 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +75% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
China EV maker priced above its worth
Picture a family in Guangzhou trading in their old petrol car for a sleek new electric model from XPeng. The company is burning cash with revenue down 18 percent and a negative 3 percent profit margin. At 30 times forward earnings and a narrow moat this looks like a classic cyclical bet on a sector that can turn fast.
We pass because the shares sit 7 percent above our fair value and the business shows an 8 percent negative return on equity. High analyst targets ignore the reality of slowing demand and peak cycle earnings that often trap investors in low multiples that are not bargains.
China auto exposure adds real volatility around currency, policy and competition. The ethical screen clears yet the numbers still point to limited upside. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to China and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
XPEV trades on the NYSE (the company is based in China). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-17Markdown$11.14-8.7%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 8.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-08-18Markdown · changed$12.20-15.8%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 15.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-07-18Accumulation$14.49+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-07-03Accumulation$14.49+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$14.49Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
