Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.31, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price46.27 USD
Fair value62.50
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-22Read Distribution51.64-10.4% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 9% slide in 3 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markdown56.55-18.2% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 9% slide in 4 weeks
2026-09-04Read Accumulation62.21-25.6% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 19% rise in 4 weeks
2026-08-05Read Markup52.34-11.6% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 54% rise in 5 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
ManpowerGroup Inc. holds its Distribution at $46.27. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 11 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 11 days
Price at the screen
$46.27
Valuation
18.29 trailing · 9.97 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.76
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Accounts receivable
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
22.80%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 22.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
61.59%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 61.6% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
0.15%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
ManpowerGroup's business is fine, but its receivables are about 62% of its assets, well over the ~49% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 26% discount to our $62.50 fair value, 4.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 26.0% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $62.50, with a range of $62.50 to $92.54, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Staffing firms ride every boom and bust
When the economy wobbles, companies cut temporary hires first and ManpowerGroup feels it straight away. The stock trades at 10.8 times forward earnings with 8 percent revenue growth, yet it delivers only 1 percent profit margins and 5 percent return on equity. That combination signals a cyclical business whose low multiple reflects peak-cycle earnings rather than a bargain, which is why we pass despite the ethical screen clearing.
The 31 percent gap to our fair value estimate looks attractive on paper, but thin returns and unknown competitive edge leave little room for error when client demand turns. Nine analysts lean buy with a 55 dollar median target, yet history shows staffing multiples compress fast once hiring freezes hit.
Currency swings, client concentration and sudden order drops remain the real threats, none of which the current multiple appears to price in fully. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MAN trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Distribution$46.93-1.3%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 23% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $36.
2026-10-29Distribution$47.53-8.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 8.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 23% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $36.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $36.
2026-10-15Markdown$52.78+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $36. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14Markdown$52.78+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $36. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-13Markdown$52.78+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $36. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-12Markdown$52.78+1.8%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $36. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-11Markdown$51.87+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $36. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-10Markdown$51.87-8.3%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 8.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $36. Since the last review it its composite score rose. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$56.55-9.1%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $36.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
