Adecco Group AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides human resource services to businesses and organizations in Europe, North America, the Asia Pacific, South America, and North Africa.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
14.72 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-04
Screened 2026-09-04 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · 20 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 14.72 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 17.15, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price14.72 USD
Fair value17.15
Ethical score70.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-21Read Markup14.26+3.2% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Distribution9.91+48.5% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Adecco Group AG holds its Accumulation at $14.72. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 6 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-04
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 6 days
Price at the screen
$14.72
Valuation
14.72 trailing · 8.94 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.01
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
96.46%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 96.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
11.48%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 11.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 17% discount to our $17.15 fair value, weak competitive moat, 3.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 16.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus None. The average target sits −7% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Staffing Agency Trips On Debt And Weak Growth
Picture a company that supplies workers for factory shifts and office projects across dozens of countries. Adecco does exactly that, yet its thin 1% profit margin and 2% revenue growth leave little room for error when demand slows. We pass because the business also fails our ethical screen on debt levels, and a weak moat offers no protection against bigger rivals.
The 8.2x forward earnings multiple looks tempting next to 9% ROE, but this is a classic cyclical trap. Peak earnings often coincide with low multiples in staffing, and history shows multiples can stay depressed once the cycle turns. Two analysts rate the shares a hold with a median target at the current price, underlining limited upside.
Currency swings, client concentration and the debt burden add further pressure in an already low-margin industry. The margin of safety to our fair value does not offset these structural and ethical shortcomings.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Switzerland and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AHEXY trades on PNK (the company is based in Switzerland). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-21Markup · changed$14.26+13.4%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 13.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (2 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-07-20Distribution$12.57+26.8%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 26.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (2 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-07-18Distribution$9.91+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (2 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-07-16Distribution$9.91+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (2 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-07-03Distribution$9.91+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$9.91Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
