Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 21:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Macy's, Inc. holds its Markdown at $22.08. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 164 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 164 days
Price at the screen
$22.08
Valuation
9.12 trailing · 9.30 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.43
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
32.05%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 32.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
11.54%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 11.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 2.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +9% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Department Stores Trade Cheap but Trap Investors
Picture a high street shop packed with clothes that shoppers can now buy cheaper online in seconds. Macy's still runs the physical stores and websites, yet revenue inches up just 2 percent a year while net margins sit at only 3 percent. Forward earnings trade at 10.2 times, but the shares already sit 5 percent above our fair value and the analyst crowd sees little upside from here.
The business earns a respectable 14 percent return on equity and clears our ethical checks. Even so, low growth and thin profitability leave almost no margin of safety, and the opportunity rating stays at none.
Retail is brutally cyclical. A low multiple on peak earnings often signals the top of the cycle rather than a bargain. Economic slowdowns or further online shifts could cut profits fast, turning the apparent value into a trap. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
M trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-10Markdown$22.59+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $19. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-09Markdown$22.59+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $19. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-08Markdown$22.59+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $19. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-06Markdown$22.59+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $19. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-05Markdown$22.59+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $19. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-04Markdown$22.59+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $19. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-03Markdown · changed$22.59-9.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $19. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-05Accumulation$24.82-2.2%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-07-18Accumulation$25.37+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-07-03Accumulation$25.37+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
