Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price622.17 USD
Fair value414.75
Ethical score92.6/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Markdown666.67-6.7% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
2026-10-20Read Accumulation666.67-6.7% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-13Read Markdown642.24-3.1% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 5% slide in 11 days
2026-10-02Read Accumulation677.52-8.2% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 5% rise in 5 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Dillard's, Inc. holds its Markdown at $622.17. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 34 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 34 days
Price at the screen
$622.17
Valuation
13.92 trailing · 17.61 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 92.6
Beta
1.07
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
6.68%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 6.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
12.85%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 12.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.72%
Below 5%
Only 0.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Dillard's, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 7%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today DDS passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $414.75 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 50.0% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $414.75, with a range of $414.75 to $476.96, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Retail chain trading well beyond its real worth
Picture a shopper who still heads to the department store for clothes and home goods. Dillard's runs those stores across the southern and midwestern states, yet its shares sit 24 percent above our fair value with only 3 percent revenue growth expected ahead. A forward P/E of 16.2 times and a 10 percent profit margin look respectable on paper, but the price already prices in more optimism than the modest top line supports.
We pass because the valuation leaves no margin of safety. High return on equity of 34 percent and a moderate moat show the business can still turn a profit in its core regions, and it clears our ethical screen. Even so, the current quote of 551 dollars versus a fair value near 416 dollars means investors pay a clear premium for limited expansion.
Retail remains cyclical and exposed to shifts in consumer spending and online competition. When earnings peak the multiple can compress quickly, turning what looks like a steady earner into a value trap. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
DDS trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-06Markdown$622.17-2.2%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (3 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $537. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-05Markdown$636.21-4.6%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (3 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $537. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markdown · changed$666.67+0.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (3 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $537.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (3 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $537.
2026-10-13Markdown · changed$642.24-5.2%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (3 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $537.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (3 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $537.
2026-08-26Markup · changed$642.63+16.6%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 16.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (3 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $537.
2026-07-26Markdown$550.93-9.1%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (3 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $537.
2026-07-18Markdown$606.27+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (3 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $537.
2026-07-03Markdown$606.27+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (93). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
