An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Dillard's, Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Markdown
read at $602.31
Dillard's, Inc. holds its Markdown at $602.31.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markdown label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-30
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 145 days
Price
$602.31
Valuation
14.32 trailing · 17.68 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 92.6
Beta
1.19
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads OVERVALUED — it trades above our $416.48 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 2.70% revenue growth.
Read at
$602.31
14.32 P/E · 17.68 fwd
Our fair value
$416.48
31% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$496.00
-18% to current
Target low $465.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $650.00
▲ current $602.31 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$602.31
you are here
Conservative
$416.48
-31%
Analyst avg
$496.00
-18%
Our fair value
$416.48
-31%
Analyst high
$650.00
+8%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Revenue growth
2.70%
Profit margin
9.95%
Debt to equity
27.42
Analyst consensus
None · 3 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 6.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 12.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Retail chain trading well beyond its real worth
Picture a shopper who still heads to the department store for clothes and home goods. Dillard's runs those stores across the southern and midwestern states, yet its shares sit 24 percent above our fair value with only 3 percent revenue growth expected ahead. A forward P/E of 16.2 times and a 10 percent profit margin look respectable on paper, but the price already prices in more optimism than the modest top line supports.
We pass because the valuation leaves no margin of safety. High return on equity of 34 percent and a moderate moat show the business can still turn a profit in its core regions, and it clears our ethical screen. Even so, the current quote of 551 dollars versus a fair value near 416 dollars means investors pay a clear premium for limited expansion.
Retail remains cyclical and exposed to shifts in consumer spending and online competition. When earnings peak the multiple can compress quickly, turning what looks like a steady earner into a value trap. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
DDS trades on the NYSE. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (3 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $537. Entered 2026-07-26 · Markdown
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-26Markdown$550.93-9.1%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (3 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $537.
2026-07-18Markdown$606.27+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (3 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $537.
2026-07-03Markdown$606.27+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (93). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$606.27Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (93). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
