Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 21:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Dillard's, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $624.33. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 345 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 345 days
Price at the screen
$624.33
Valuation
14.30 trailing · 18.10 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 92.6
Beta
1.19
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
6.68%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 6.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
12.85%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 12.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OVERVALUED: it trades above our $414.75 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 33.6% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus None. The average target sits −17% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Retail chain trading well beyond its real worth
Picture a shopper who still heads to the department store for clothes and home goods. Dillard's runs those stores across the southern and midwestern states, yet its shares sit 24 percent above our fair value with only 3 percent revenue growth expected ahead. A forward P/E of 16.2 times and a 10 percent profit margin look respectable on paper, but the price already prices in more optimism than the modest top line supports.
We pass because the valuation leaves no margin of safety. High return on equity of 34 percent and a moderate moat show the business can still turn a profit in its core regions, and it clears our ethical screen. Even so, the current quote of 551 dollars versus a fair value near 416 dollars means investors pay a clear premium for limited expansion.
Retail remains cyclical and exposed to shifts in consumer spending and online competition. When earnings peak the multiple can compress quickly, turning what looks like a steady earner into a value trap. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
DDS trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-26Markup · changed$642.63+16.6%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 16.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (3 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $537.
2026-07-26Markdown$550.93-9.1%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (3 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $537.
2026-07-18Markdown$606.27+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (3 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $537.
2026-07-03Markdown$606.27+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (93). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$606.27Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (93). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
