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The Screen · Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
Lilly (Eli)
LLY · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $1.22T · 50,000 employees
Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets human pharmaceutical products in the United States, Europe, China, Japan, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
1,417.99 USD
Price as of 4 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-04 · the tape above runs as of 16:02 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price1,417.99 USD at the 4 Nov 2026 close
Our value readOvervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.39, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price1,417.99 USD
Fair value1,222.11
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Markup1,417.99+0.0% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 20% rise in 5 weeks
2026-10-02Read Accumulation1,183.46+19.8% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation while volume is distributing
2026-07-02Read Markup1,131.42+25.3% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Lilly (Eli) holds its Markup at $1,417.99. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 77 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 77 days
Price at the screen
$1,417.99
Valuation
46.11 trailing · 28.94 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.45
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
37.79%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 37.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.59%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
22.25%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 22.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.39%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Lilly (Eli)'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 38% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when LLY's ethical verdict changes
Today LLY does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades above our $1,222.11 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 47.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 16.0% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $1,222.11, with a range of $837.00 to $1,405.42, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Lilly's High-Flying Numbers, but Ethical Cloud
Imagine a pharmaceutical powerhouse like Eli Lilly, developing life-changing drugs, but weighed down by a debt ratio that flunks our ethical screen. It's a stark contrast, much like the high-flying revenue growth of 48% against a debt-laden balance sheet. Why it stands out is the robust financial performance; a 34% profit margin and a whopping 102% return on equity. Yet, the market consensus, despite a 'buy' rating and a median target of $1372, is overlooking the ethical failings, a critical factor in our analysis.
The risk here is two-pronged; firstly, the ethical failing on debt ratios which could signal financial instability, and secondly, the possibility of a cyclical value trap given the forward P/E of 26.3x. While the numbers are impressive, the ethical failing is a red flag that can't be ignored, especially in an industry where trust and responsibility are paramount.
Despite the strong moat and the margin of safety being a slim -3%, indicating our fair value is just below the current price, the ethical failing is a deal-breaker. This is not a call to action but a sobering reminder that while Lilly's financials are stellar, the ethical lapse is a breach that can't be ignored. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: as a drug manufacturers - general name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LLY trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Markup · changed$1,417.99+11.3%Entry 22
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 11.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1211. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-29Accumulation$1,273.46+5.4%Entry 21
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1211. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$1,208.74+0.0%Entry 20
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1211. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$1,208.74+0.0%Entry 19
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1211. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Accumulation$1,208.74+0.0%Entry 18
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1211. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation$1,208.74+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1211. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Accumulation$1,208.74+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1211. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Accumulation$1,208.74+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1211. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Accumulation$1,208.74+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1211. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Accumulation$1,208.74+2.1%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1211. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
