2026-10-25
FirstService clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 20:03 UTC
The Screen · Real Estate · Real Estate Services
FirstService Corporation
FSV · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $6.5B · 30,000 employees
FirstService Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides residential property management and other essential property services to residential and commercial customers in the United States and Canada.
Not yet scored153.62 USD
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 20:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price153.62 USD at the 5 Nov 2026 close
- Our value readFair vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026
- Our regime readMarkup, as of 5 Nov 2026
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.02)
- Last reviewed5 Nov 2026 (1 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: $135.00 to $164.49, base estimate $143.04 (screen dated 2026-11-05).
- Trend Markup
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 0.02, read 2026-11-05
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price153.62 USD
Fair value143.04
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-18Read Markup135.07+13.7% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup after a 5% rise in 7 days
2026-10-11Read Markdown128.51+19.5% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after an 11% slide in 6 weeks
2026-08-30Read Distribution143.94+6.7% to today Markup gives way to Distribution first Distribution read since July
2026-07-30Read Markup148.46+3.5% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its markup label.
FirstService Corporation holds its Markup at $153.62. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 6 days.
| Phase | Markup |
| Quantitative state | Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 6 days |
| Price at the screen | $153.62 |
| Valuation | 47.62 trailing · 23.09 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 0.90 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 32.32% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 32.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.00% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 25.13% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 25.1% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
FirstService clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
FirstService clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 32%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $143.04 fair value estimate, 5.80% revenue growth.
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 7.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +16% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere our models see it going: fair-value estimate $143.04, with a range of $135.00 to $164.49, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsProperty manager leaves little room for error
Picture the firm that keeps condo blocks running smoothly from Toronto high-rises to Florida gated communities. FirstService handles the day-to-day management and essential services that owners rarely see until something breaks. Revenue grows at a steady 5 percent, yet the business earns only a 3 percent profit margin and an 11 percent return on equity, numbers that leave scant cushion once costs rise.
We pass because the shares sit just 4 percent below our fair value at the current price of 148.46 dollars, offering almost no margin of safety. A forward multiple of 21.9 times earnings already prices in modest growth, and analyst targets at 200 dollars rest on assumptions that leave little room if housing activity slows.
Real estate services remain exposed to local property cycles and fee pressure from large landlords. The ethical screen clears, yet the thin valuation buffer and limited returns on capital keep the opportunity rating at none. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 23.1xexpensive even after accounting for its growth |
| Trailing P/E | 47.6xexpensive: the price assumes strong growth ahead |
| EPS, trailing | 3.26 |
| EPS, forward | 6.72 |
| Revenue growth | +5.8%slow but positive growth |
| Profit margin | 2.6%barely profitable |
| Return on equity | 12.1%a solid return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | 4.05% |
| Dividend yield | 85.00% |
| Debt to equity | 1.26a meaningful debt load worth watching |
| Current ratio | 1.69healthy short-term liquidity |
| Beta | 0.90steadier than the market |
| 52-week range | 119.41 - 166.73 |
| Market cap | $6.5B |
| Employees | 30,000 |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeFSV trades on Nasdaq (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01
Markup $144.98
+4.7% Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $190.
2026-10-25
Markup $138.51
+2.5% Entry 9
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $190.
2026-10-18
Markup · changed $135.07
+5.1% Entry 8
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $190.
2026-10-11
Markdown · changed $128.51
+0.0% Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $190.
2026-10-02
Distribution $128.51
-10.7% Entry 6
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 10.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $190.
2026-08-30
Distribution · changed $143.94
-3.0% Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $190.
2026-07-30
Markup · changed $148.46
+3.6% Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $190.
2026-07-18
Distribution $143.36
+0.0% Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $190.
2026-07-03
Distribution $143.36
+0.0% Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02
Distribution $143.36
Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
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Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
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| Date | Politician | Party | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | Gil Cisneros | Democrat | buy | 1K–15K |
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $131.34 | +9.0% | · | $1,090 | +9.0% |
| 2 months | $145.90 | -1.9% | · | $981 | -1.9% |
| 3 months | $141.64 | +1.1% | $0.31 | $1,013 | +1.3% |
| 6 months | $152.11 | -5.9% | $0.58 | $945 | -5.5% |
| 1 year | $178.48 | -19.8% | $1.13 | $808 | -19.2% |
| 2 years | $148.94 | -3.9% | $2.16 | $975 | -2.5% |
| 3 years | $143.05 | +0.1% | $3.08 | $1,022 | +2.2% |
| 5 years | $167.56 | -14.6% | $4.67 | $882 | -11.8% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever FSV does next, these words stay.
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