Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.20, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price11.94 USD
Fair value20.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Distribution12.36-3.4% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution after an 8% rise in 10 days
2026-10-26Read Markdown11.48+4.0% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
2026-10-22Read Distribution11.48+4.0% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after an 18% slide in 3 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markdown13.97-14.5% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after an 8% slide in 13 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Newmark Group, Inc. holds its Distribution at $11.94. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 31 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 31 days
Price at the screen
$11.94
Valuation
15.26 trailing · 6.23 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.81
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
41.89%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 41.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
17.08%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 17.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Newmark Group,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 42% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today NMRK does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 38% discount to our $20.00 fair value, 12.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 40.3% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $20.00, with a range of $20.00 to $24.72, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Real estate brokers and the cheap earnings trap
Picture a broker closing a big office deal in Manhattan. The commission lands, revenue jumps 27 percent, yet only 4 percent sticks as profit. Newmark shows exactly that pattern: a low 7.2 times forward multiple and a 12 percent return on equity that looks attractive until you remember commercial real estate volumes swing hard with interest rates and leasing cycles. The market prices the shares at 15.60 dollars against our 22 dollar fair value, but the thin margins and unknown competitive edge keep us on the sidelines.
Analysts see modest upside to 19 dollars and the ethical screen clears, yet none of that changes the core issue. Peak-cycle earnings often sit behind low multiples in this sector, and nothing here signals durable pricing power once the current leasing wave fades.
Risk sits in the cyclical exposure and the narrow profit conversion, both of which can erase apparent value quickly when transaction volumes drop. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NMRK trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 7.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20.
2026-10-29Markdown$11.52+0.3%Entry 16
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markdown$11.48+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markdown$11.48+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markdown · changed$11.48+0.0%Entry 13
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Distribution$11.48+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Distribution$11.48+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Distribution$11.48+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$11.58-4.5%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
