Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 3.00, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price4.26 USD
Fair value7.43Our model only; no analyst estimate to cross-check.
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-29Read Distribution4.20+1.4% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 20% slide in 9 weeks
2026-08-29Read Markdown5.24-18.7% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-07-30Read Markup5.24-18.7% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup
2026-07-02Read Accumulation5.16-17.4% to today First review on file: Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Five Point Holdings LLC holds its Distribution at $4.26. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$4.26
Valuation
8.07 trailing · 7.45 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.33
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Revenue purity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
13.65%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 13.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
15.85%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 15.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
15.68%
Below 5%
15.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Five Point Holdings LLC clears the business-activity screen, and its debt is inside the line. Where it falls short is income purity: around 16% of its income right now is interest earned on a large cash position, against a roughly 5% ceiling, so it does not pass. That reflects what it earns today, not the business itself, and it could clear the screen if its operating revenue grows and the interest share falls.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our model only; no analyst estimate to cross-check.
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 43% discount to our $7.43 fair value, none competitive moat, 3.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 42.7% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $7.43, with a range of $6.80 to $8.52, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it stands out
A 3%-growth business trading at just 7.5x forward earnings, with a none competitive moat and minimal debt. That is a 43% discount to our $7.43 fair value: the market is pricing it cautiously while the fundamentals argue otherwise.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FPH trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Distribution$4.61+9.8%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 9.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%.
2026-10-22Markdown$4.38+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$4.38+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Markdown$4.38+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19Markdown$4.38+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markdown$4.38+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-17Markdown$4.38-11.0%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 11.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-02Markdown$4.92-6.1%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%.
2026-08-29Markdown · changed$5.24+0.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.