An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Forestar Group Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $28.32
Forestar Group Inc. holds its Markup at $28.32.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-24
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price
$28.32
Valuation
8.50 trailing · 9.44 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.39
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$28.32
8.50 P/E · 9.44 fwd
Our fair value
$30.50
8% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$34.00
+20% to current
Target low $33.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $35.00
▲ current $28.32 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$28.32
you are here
Conservative
$29.70
+5%
Analyst avg
$34.00
+20%
Our fair value
$30.50
+8%
Analyst high
$35.00
+24%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
-3.00%
Profit margin
9.88%
Debt to equity
16.56
Analyst consensus
Buy · 2 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Finished lots in a slowing housing cycle
When new home sales slow the companies that prepare the land feel it quickest. Forestar buys acreage and installs the roads and utilities that let builders start work on single family communities across the United States. Its lots then go to national and regional homebuilders who decide when construction actually begins.
The forward multiple sits at 9.4 times yet revenue is already down 3 percent and both profit margin and return on equity stand at just 10 percent. With an unknown moat, only two analysts covering the name and a modest 5 percent margin of safety above the current price we see nothing that clears our bar for an opportunity.
Real estate development is a classic cyclical business so the low multiple can simply reflect peak earnings that will not last. Higher interest rates or weaker buyer demand can erase that thin cushion quickly even though the ethical screen returns a pass.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
FOR trades on the NYSE. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $31. Entered 2026-07-18 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Distribution$29.20+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $31.
2026-07-03Distribution$29.20+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$29.20Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming FOR
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
9 Apr2026
Josh Gottheimer
Democrat
sell
15K–50K
9 Apr2026
Josh Gottheimer
Democrat
sell
15K–50K
9 Apr2026
Scott Peters
Democrat
buy
50K–100K
9 Apr2026
Scott Peters
Democrat
buy
250K–500K
9 Apr2026
Scott Peters
Democrat
buy
50K–100K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$27.07
+5.6%
·
$1,056
+5.6%
2 months
$25.98
+10.0%
·
$1,100
+10.0%
3 months
$24.93
+14.6%
·
$1,146
+14.6%
6 months
$26.51
+7.8%
·
$1,078
+7.8%
1 year
$20.67
+38.3%
·
$1,383
+38.3%
2 years
$32.76
-12.8%
·
$872
-12.8%
3 years
$21.28
+34.3%
·
$1,343
+34.3%
5 years
$21.66
+32.0%
·
$1,320
+32.0%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever FOR does next, these words stay.
Forestar Group Inc. · FOR · Markup · $28.32
Recorded 2026-07-24 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
