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The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers
Ford Motor Company
F · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $55.8B · 168,000 employees
Ford Motor Company develops, delivers, and services Ford trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars, and Lincoln luxury vehicles in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
14.00 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Ford Motor Company holds its Distribution at $14.00. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 26 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 26 days
Price at the screen
$14.00
Valuation
N/A trailing · 7.31 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.84
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
57.32%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 57.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.95%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
30.39%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 30.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.80%
Below 5%
Only 0.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $13.56 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 3.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 19 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +14% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Ford looks cheap but the cycle warns
Picture a pickup truck rolling off the line just as borrowing costs bite and buyers stay home. Ford sits at a forward multiple of 7.8 times yet posts a negative profit margin of minus 3 percent and a return on equity of minus 15 percent. We pass because the low valuation reflects a business that cannot clear its cost of capital and carries too much debt to satisfy our ethical screen.
Revenue edges up 6 percent but the moat is weak and the company remains exposed to every twist in consumer credit and commodity prices. Twenty analysts rate the shares a hold with a median target of 14 dollars, almost exactly where the stock trades today. A margin of safety of just 2 percent offers no cushion once volumes turn.
This is the classic cyclical value trap, where a depressed multiple signals peak earnings rather than a bargain. Debt levels already fail our screen and any downturn will expose how little protection exists for equity holders. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
F trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-28Markup$14.68-1.5%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-18Markup$14.90+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-03Markup$14.90+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$14.90Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
