An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $97.18
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. holds its Markup at $97.18.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-06
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 18 days
Price
$97.18
Valuation
22.34 trailing · 19.85 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS
Beta
0.19
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$97.18
22.34 P/E · 19.85 fwd
Our fair value
$91.12
6% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$100.00
+3% to current
Target low $79.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $120.00
▲ current $97.18 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$97.18
you are here
Conservative
$71.10
-27%
Analyst avg
$100.00
+3%
Our fair value
$91.12
-6%
Analyst high
$120.00
+23%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Revenue growth
9.90%
Profit margin
2.60%
Debt to equity
134.58
Analyst consensus
Buy · 20 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 24.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Warehouse clubs show steady but unremarkable growth
Picture the weekly shop where families pay a membership fee for bulk packs of everything from nappies to steaks. BJ's has built a decent position in that model, posting 10% revenue growth and a strong 28% ROE while keeping a moderate moat. It clears the ethical screen cleanly, yet the shares sit 3% above our fair value at a forward multiple of 19.1 times, which leaves little margin for error.
The business earns a thin 3% profit margin and faces the usual supermarket-style pressures on pricing and traffic. Analyst targets cluster around 100, but that upside looks modest once you factor in normal retail volatility and the absence of any standout catalyst.
Risk sits mainly around valuation and competition from bigger players that can match or beat the offering on price. Growth looks reliable rather than exceptional, so the setup does not clear our bar for action. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
BJ trades on the NYSE. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $102. Entered 2026-07-23 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-23Distribution$93.40+4.7%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $102.
2026-07-18Distribution$89.21+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $102.
2026-07-03Distribution$89.21+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$89.21Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
