Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price121.07 USD
Fair value157.00
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-13Read Markup118.80+1.9% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Accumulation103.54+16.9% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
J.M. Smucker Company (The) holds its Accumulation at $121.07. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 220 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 220 days
Price at the screen
$121.07
Valuation
56.31 trailing · 11.12 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.26
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
44.19%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 44.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.92%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.35%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 30% discount to our $157.00 fair value, weak competitive moat, 5.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 29.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +20% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Strong brands cannot fix weak numbers
Walk down any supermarket aisle and Smucker products sit on the shelf in every category from coffee to pet food. Yet this defensive name earns an avoid because negative profit margins and return on equity show the business is not covering its costs, even with 6 percent revenue growth.
A forward multiple of 10.5 times looks attractive next to a consensus target near 125 dollars, but the weak moat and negative 2 percent margins point to structural pressure rather than a bargain. The ethical screen also fails on the debt ratio, ruling the name out regardless of the 13 percent gap to our fair value.
High debt in a low-growth category often signals a value trap where earnings stay depressed and balance sheet repairs eat any cash flow. The market's buy rating does not change that arithmetic.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SJM trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-26Markup$125.87+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-25Markup$125.87+6.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24Markup$118.80+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-23Markup$118.80+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-13Markup · changed$118.80+14.7%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 14.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116.
2026-07-18Accumulation$103.54+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116.
2026-07-03Accumulation$103.54+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$103.54Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
