HRL · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $11.5B · 20,000 employees
Hormel Foods Corporation develops, processes, and distributes various meat, nuts, and other food products to foodservice, convenience store, and commercial customers in the United States and internationally.
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 21:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Hormel Foods holds its Distribution at $20.84. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 142 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 142 days
Price at the screen
$20.84
Valuation
33.61 trailing · 13.41 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 87.2
Beta
0.32
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
21.34%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 21.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
3.99%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 4.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.87%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.20%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades at roughly a 37% discount to our $28.54 fair value, weak competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 36.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +25% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Steady meats priced below their worth
Picture the same tins and packs landing in trolleys every week, the sort of defensive names that keep shelves full even when wallets tighten. Hormel sits at $25.39 against our $29.10 fair value, a 15 percent margin of safety on a forward multiple of 16.3 times. Revenue may be down 3 percent, yet the shares still clear our ethical screen and the business keeps turning a 4 percent profit margin.
The case rests on that valuation gap rather than any sudden growth spurt. A hold rating from eight analysts lines up with a $27 median target, so the market is not pricing in heroics. The shares simply look cheaper than the steady cash flows the defensive category can deliver in tougher times.
Risks are plain. A weak moat and 6 percent return on equity leave little room for error if volumes keep slipping or input costs spike. Packaged foods rarely collapse, yet they also rarely surprise to the upside when competition is this crowded. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HRL trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-27Markdown$24.09+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $25. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-26Markdown$24.09+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $25. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-25Markdown · changed$24.09-4.0%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $25. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24Distribution$25.09+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $25. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-23Distribution$25.09+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $25. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $25. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-21Markdown$25.09+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $25. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-20Markdown · changed$25.09-1.1%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $25. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-01Markup · changed$25.37+7.4%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $25.
2026-07-18Distribution$23.62+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $25.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
