NAS10028,945+0.02%S&P7,552−0.45%GOLD$4,410+0.51%BTC$76,720+0.75%VIX15.47−12.65%live tape · as of 17:00 UTC
The Screen · Industrials · Specialty Business Services
Amentum Holdings, Inc.
AMTM · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $4.8B · 50,000 employees
Amentum Holdings, Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
19.46 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-11
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 17:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Amentum Holdings, Inc. holds its Markdown at $19.46. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 7 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 7 days
Price at the screen
$19.46
Valuation
23.45 trailing · 7.37 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
36.36%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 36.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
25.45%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 25.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 79.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +44% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Government engineering contracts mask stagnant growth
Picture a contractor handling complex US and international projects from digital systems to large scale engineering. The work feels essential yet Amentum shows no revenue growth, a 1% profit margin and just 3% return on equity. Forward earnings sit at 7.5 times but the flat top line and thin returns give little reason to step in despite the ethical screen clearing.
Analysts see value with a 33 dollar median target and our own fair value sits well above the current price. Still the opportunity rating stays at none because low profitability and missing growth outweigh any apparent discount. Unknown competitive position adds another layer of uncertainty around sustained performance.
Risk centres on dependence on government budgets that can shift quickly and the challenge of lifting margins from such low levels. Without visible improvement in returns or scale the setup stays uncompelling even at depressed multiples. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AMTM trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 15.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-07-21Markdown$20.68-9.5%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-07-18Markdown$22.86+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-07-17Markdown$22.86+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-07-03Markdown$22.86+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$22.86Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
