Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.00, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price22.61 USD
Fair value32.19
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-01Read Accumulation21.98+2.9% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 5% rise in 2 weeks
2026-10-18Read Markdown20.93+8.0% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
2026-10-11Read Accumulation21.23+6.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation first Accumulation read since July
2026-09-21Read Markdown21.61+4.6% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 22% slide in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Alliance Laundry Holdings Inc. holds its Accumulation at $22.61. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 129 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 129 days
Price at the screen
$22.61
Valuation
25.80 trailing · 15.36 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
69.13%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 69.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
13.12%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 13.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Alliance Laundry's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 69% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 29% discount to our $32.19 fair value, 6.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 29.8% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $32.19, with a range of $24.66 to $41.09, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Commercial Laundry Firm Offers No Real Edge
Every hotel chain or laundromat that needs tough washers and dryers for daily punishment relies on makers like this one. The numbers show revenue rising 10 percent, an 8 percent profit margin and an eye watering 185 percent ROE, while the shares sit at 25.50 dollars against a 31.61 dollar fair value.
Yet the opportunity rating sits at none. A forward multiple of 17.4 times leaves little margin for error in a sector where demand tracks economic cycles, and the unknown moat means those lofty returns could prove fleeting rather than durable.
Cyclical businesses often post low multiples precisely when earnings sit near peaks, turning an apparent bargain into a trap. The ethical screen is cleared and analysts lean bullish, but nothing here changes the neutral stance.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ALH trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-06Accumulation$22.61-1.5%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $31. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-05Accumulation$22.96+3.4%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $31. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Accumulation$22.20+1.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $31. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Accumulation$21.98+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $31. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $31.
2026-10-25Markdown$21.44+2.4%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $31.
2026-10-18Markdown · changed$20.93-1.4%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $31.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $31.
2026-10-02Markdown$21.23-1.8%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $31.
2026-09-21Markdown · changed$21.61-21.5%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 21.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $31.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.