NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,417−0.18%BTC$81,133−0.12%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 23:00 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances
Somnigroup International Inc
SGI · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $13.3B · 19,000 employees
Somnigroup International Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, distributes, and retails bedding products in the United States and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
63.36 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-18
Screened 2026-09-18 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 63.36 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 90.76, over the last year.
Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-08-25
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price63.36 USD
Fair value90.76
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-12Read Markup67.82-6.6% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution72.25-12.3% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Somnigroup International Inc holds its Distribution at $63.36. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 10 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 10 days
Price at the screen
$63.36
Valuation
25.04 trailing · 16.11 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.19
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
57.54%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 57.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
4.25%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 4.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 43.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +50% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Mattress Sales Track Boom and Bust Cycles
Picture a household weighing up a new mattress only when bonuses land or house prices rise. Somnigroup sits right in that discretionary corner of consumer spending. Revenue is growing at 12 percent with an 18 percent return on equity, yet the opportunity rating sits at none because the business stays tied to economic swings.
The narrow moat and 7 percent profit margin show a workable but unexceptional operation. Forward earnings sit at 18.7 times while analysts cluster around a 98 dollar target. Those figures do not overcome the fact that peak-cycle earnings often flatter multiples and leave investors holding lower profits when spending slows.
Currency moves and housing data can shift demand fast, and a narrow moat offers little defence once wallets close. Ethical checks clear but the cyclical trap remains the dominant issue. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SGI trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-12Markup · changed$67.82-5.9%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 5.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $97.
2026-08-12Distribution$72.10-0.2%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $97.
2026-07-18Distribution$72.25+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $97.
2026-07-03Distribution$72.25+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$72.25Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.