Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.68, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price2.09 USD
Fair value2.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-01Read Markup2.21-5.4% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 16% rise in 7 days
2026-10-25Read Accumulation1.91+9.4% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-11Read Markdown1.93+8.3% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 29% rise in 3 weeks
2026-09-21Read Distribution1.50+39.3% to today Markup gives way to Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Alector Inc holds its Markup at $2.09. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 37 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 37 days
Price at the screen
$2.09
Valuation
N/A trailing · -2.14 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.60
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Interest-bearing securities
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
12.36%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 12.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
64.87%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 64.9% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
22.44%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 22.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Alector's business is fine, but its cash and interest-bearing securities are about 65% of its assets, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $2.00 fair value estimate, none competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 4.5% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $2.00, with a range of $1.14 to $4.56, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it gives us pause
At -2.1x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. It trades 14% above our $2.00 fair value, so you would be buying at a premium, not a discount. The none moat is real, but quality alone does not make an expensive price cheap.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; as a biotechnology name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ALEC trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Markup · changed$2.21+15.7%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 15.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $3.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $3.
2026-10-18Markdown$1.91-1.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $3.
2026-10-11Markdown · changed$1.93+0.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $3.
2026-10-02Distribution$1.93+28.7%Entry 8
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 28.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $3. Since the last review it its composite score eased.
2026-09-21Distribution · changed$1.50+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $3.
2026-08-21Markup · changed$1.50+0.0%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $3.
2026-07-21Markdown$1.50-2.0%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $3.
2026-07-18Markdown$1.53+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $3.
2026-07-17Markdown$1.53+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $3.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.