Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-25
Options put/call open interest 0.57, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price57.01 USD
Fair value72.50
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Accumulation54.28+5.0% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation with results news in the headlines
2026-10-02Read Markup54.28+5.0% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-09-10Read Distribution52.17+9.3% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 10% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-09Read Markup57.93-1.6% to today Markdown gives way to Markup after a 40% rise in 5 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
PayPal holds its Accumulation at $57.01. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 24 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-30
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 24 days
Price at the screen
$57.01
Valuation
10.87 trailing · 9.69 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.28
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
PayPal does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-31. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when PYPL's ethical verdict changes
Today PYPL does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Cited by BDS movement for restricting payment services to Palestinians while maintaining full services in Israel. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 27% discount to our $72.50 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 2.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-30 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 27.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $72.50, with a range of $66.11 to $110.18, dated to the 2026-10-30 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Payments Network Fails Its Own Ethical Test
Shoppers tap PayPal to settle a dinner bill or a freelance invoice in seconds. We pass on the name outright. The business activity screen blocks any further look, no matter what the spreadsheet shows.
Revenue grows at just 7 percent, the forward multiple sits at 9.8 times and margins reach 15 percent with a 25 percent return on equity. The moat is only moderate and 33 analysts carry a hold rating with a median target of $48. None of that moves the needle once the ethical filter has already ruled the company out.
Even the slim gap to our own $60 fair value offers no cover. The screen exists for exactly these cases and leaves no room to argue around it. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PYPL trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-27Accumulation$57.16+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (33 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $57. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Accumulation$57.16+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (33 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $57. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation$57.16+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (33 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $57. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Accumulation$57.16+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (33 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $57. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Accumulation$57.16+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (33 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $57. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Accumulation$57.16+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (33 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $57. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Accumulation$57.16+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (33 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $57. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Accumulation$57.16+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (33 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $57. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Accumulation$57.16+5.3%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (33 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $57.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (32 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $57.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
