NAS10026,906−5.38%S&P7,400−3.75%GOLD$4,127+1.33%BTC$76,159−5.28%VIX24.13+45.27%latest tape · as of 20:03 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers
Ford Motor Company
F · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $49.3B · 168,000 employees
Ford Motor Company develops, delivers, and services Ford trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars, and Lincoln luxury vehicles in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
12.67 USD
Price as of 4 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-04 · the tape above runs as of 20:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price12.67 USD at the 4 Nov 2026 close
Our value readFair vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.59, read 2026-11-05
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price12.67 USD
Fair value13.11
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readFairas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-04Read Accumulation12.31+2.9% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation with volume flow in agreement
2026-10-11Read Markdown12.71-0.3% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 9% slide in 6 weeks
2026-08-28Read Distribution13.99-9.4% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 6% slide in 8 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup14.90-15.0% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Ford Motor Company holds its Accumulation at $12.67. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 59 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 59 days
Price at the screen
$12.67
Valuation
N/A trailing · 6.44 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.94
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
57.32%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 57.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.95%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
30.39%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 30.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.80%
Below 5%
Only 0.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Ford Motor's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 57% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when F's ethical verdict changes
Today F does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
Conscience flag · AFSC Investigate, American Friends Service Committee, Who Profits Corporate Database
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Documented on AFSC Investigate / American Friends Service Committee / Who Profits Corporate Database — category: Population Control | Specialized Equipment and Services | The Wall and Checkpoints. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 3% discount to our $13.11 fair value, weak competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 3.4% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $13.11, with a range of $10.80 to $16.21, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Ford looks cheap but the cycle warns
Picture a pickup truck rolling off the line just as borrowing costs bite and buyers stay home. Ford sits at a forward multiple of 7.8 times yet posts a negative profit margin of minus 3 percent and a return on equity of minus 15 percent. We pass because the low valuation reflects a business that cannot clear its cost of capital and carries too much debt to satisfy our ethical screen.
Revenue edges up 6 percent but the moat is weak and the company remains exposed to every twist in consumer credit and commodity prices. Twenty analysts rate the shares a hold with a median target of 14 dollars, almost exactly where the stock trades today. A margin of safety of just 2 percent offers no cushion once volumes turn.
This is the classic cyclical value trap, where a depressed multiple signals peak earnings rather than a bargain. Debt levels already fail our screen and any downturn will expose how little protection exists for equity holders. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
F trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-10-28Markdown$12.31+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $14. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markdown$12.31+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $14. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markdown$12.31+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $14. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$12.31+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $14. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markdown$12.31+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $14. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$12.31+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $14. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown$12.31+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $14. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$12.31+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $14. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markdown$12.31-3.1%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $14.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
