Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price168.09 USD
Fair value206.72
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-27Read Markup192.62-12.7% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution172.13-2.3% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Equifax holds its Distribution at $168.09. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 9 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 9 days
Price at the screen
$168.09
Valuation
29.49 trailing · 16.53 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.31
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
42.93%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 42.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.06%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · AFSC Investigate
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Documented on AFSC Investigate. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 23% discount to our $206.72 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 10.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 23.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 21 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +25% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Credit data giant trips on its own debts
Equifax sits on the personal records of millions, turning everyday borrowing into the fuel for lenders and employers. The business grows revenue at 14 percent with an 11 percent profit margin and 14 percent ROE, yet none of that moves the needle once the ethical screen is applied.
We pass because the company fails outright on its debt ratio. A moderate moat and a forward multiple of 17.2 times cannot offset the leverage that sits at the heart of the ethical verdict, regardless of analyst targets sitting above current levels.
High debt leaves little room for error when interest rates stay elevated or when a data incident hits cash flow. The margin of safety to fair value looks attractive on paper only if the balance sheet risk is ignored. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
EFX trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-27Markup · changed$192.62+8.8%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224.
2026-07-27Distribution$177.08+2.9%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224.
2026-07-18Distribution$172.13+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224.
2026-07-03Distribution$172.13+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$172.13Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
