Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-25
Options put/call open interest 0.43, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price192.21 USD
Fair value196.86
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readFairas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-17Read Markup161.25+19.2% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup after an 11% rise in 6 days
2026-10-11Read Markdown145.78+31.8% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown
2026-10-02Read Distribution145.78+31.8% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 24% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-27Read Markup192.62-0.2% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 12% rise in 8 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Equifax holds its Markup at $192.21. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 9 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 9 days
Price at the screen
$192.21
Valuation
29.87 trailing · 19.36 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.34
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
42.93%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 42.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.06%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Equifax's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 43% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today EFX does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 5% discount to our $196.86 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 9.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 2.4% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $196.86, with a range of $143.04 to $238.39, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Credit data giant trips on its own debts
Equifax sits on the personal records of millions, turning everyday borrowing into the fuel for lenders and employers. The business grows revenue at 14 percent with an 11 percent profit margin and 14 percent ROE, yet none of that moves the needle once the ethical screen is applied.
We pass because the company fails outright on its debt ratio. A moderate moat and a forward multiple of 17.2 times cannot offset the leverage that sits at the heart of the ethical verdict, regardless of analyst targets sitting above current levels.
High debt leaves little room for error when interest rates stay elevated or when a data incident hits cash flow. The margin of safety to fair value looks attractive on paper only if the balance sheet risk is ignored. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
EFX trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Markup$184.60+14.5%Entry 17
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 14.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224.
2026-10-27Markup$161.25+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224.
2026-10-20Markup$161.25+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19Markup$161.25+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markup$161.25+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-17Markup · changed$161.25+8.2%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Markdown$149.08+2.3%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-15Markdown$145.78+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14Markdown$145.78+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-13Markdown$145.780.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
