Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-08-18
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price167.77 USD
Fair value204.48
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-02Read Distribution181.73-7.7% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Verisk Analytics holds its Distribution at $167.77. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-28
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$167.77
Valuation
25.77 trailing · 19.29 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.66
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
79.10%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 79.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
3.69%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
41.82%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 41.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Verisk Analytics's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 79% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 22% discount to our $204.48 fair value, 4.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-28 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 21.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 17 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +40% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-28 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Insurance data giant fails its own safety test
Picture an insurer pricing a hurricane policy in Florida. Verisk supplies the loss models that keep premiums from blowing up, yet the company itself carries debt levels that trip our ethical screen. At a forward multiple of 23 times earnings and revenue growing just 4 percent a year, the numbers do not scream bargain either.
We pass because the ethical failure on leverage outweighs the steady 29 percent profit margin and the analyst crowd's $229 median target. A business this mature rarely compounds fast enough to justify both the valuation and the balance-sheet stain.
The real risk sits in that debt load persisting while growth stays modest, turning what looks like a defensive compounder into a slow grind that never quite clears the bar. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
VRSK trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Distribution$167.77-5.7%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $220.
2026-09-16Distribution$177.99-5.7%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $220.
2026-08-16Distribution$188.75+3.9%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 3.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $220.
2026-07-18Distribution$181.73+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $220.
2026-07-03Distribution$181.73+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$181.73Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
