Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.42, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price447.00 USD
Fair value466.92
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-22Read Accumulation399.84+11.8% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown396.23+12.8% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 5% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-25Read Accumulation417.13+7.2% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 20% rise in 8 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup347.45+28.7% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Corpay holds its Accumulation at $447.00. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 68 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 68 days
Price at the screen
$447.00
Valuation
24.37 trailing · 12.69 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.89
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Corpay does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when CPAY's ethical verdict changes
Today CPAY does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 10% discount to our $466.92 fair value, strong competitive moat, 21.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 4.3% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $466.92, with a range of $355.38 to $592.30, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Payments firm fails ethical screen outright
Every time a company settles fuel bills or books staff lodging, Corpay sits in the middle and clips a fee. The business posts 25 percent revenue growth, 25 percent margins and 32 percent ROE with a strong moat, yet we pass without hesitation.
The ethical screen flags the core activity itself, so attractive multiples and a modest margin of safety do not move the needle. Analyst targets sit near 400 while shares trade at 366, but none of that offsets the clear fail.
Risk sits in the ethical breach and any future regulatory heat that could follow. Numbers alone cannot rescue a name that trips the screen. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CPAY trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Accumulation$406.58+1.4%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $390. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Accumulation$400.94+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $390. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$400.94+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $390. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Accumulation$400.94+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $390. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$400.94+0.7%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $390. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$397.97-2.6%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $390. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$408.46+2.2%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $390. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$399.84+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $390. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $390.
2026-10-15Markdown$397.92+0.4%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $390.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
