NAS10030,482+2.83%S&P7,765+1.49%GOLD$4,354−0.52%BTC$85,821−0.41%VIX14.17−4.71%live tape · as of 10:18 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
Aptiv
APTV · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $9.2B · 140,000 employees
Aptiv PLC, an industrial technology company, provides hardware and software solutions to support automotive and other industries in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and South America.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
43.57 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-21 · not a live quote
Screened 2026-09-21 · the tape above runs as of 10:18 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 43.57 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 78.00, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price43.57 USD
Fair value78.00
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-02Read Distribution68.60-36.5% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Aptiv holds its Markdown at $43.57. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 11 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 11 days
Price at the screen
$43.57
Valuation
19.71 trailing · 6.66 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.33
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
34.57%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 34.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
6.39%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
22.76%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 22.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.29%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 79% discount to our $78.00 fair value, weak competitive moat, 2.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 79.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 18 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +50% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Wiring Cars but Drowning in Debt
Every new car that rolls off the line carries a bundle of sensors and cables that Aptiv supplies. Yet the company is posting just 5% revenue growth, 2% profit margins and 4% return on equity while carrying too much debt to pass our ethical screen.
We pass because a forward multiple of 8.5 times looks cheap only until you notice the weak moat and the fact this is a cyclical auto supplier. Peak-cycle earnings often produce low multiples that turn out to be traps rather than bargains, and the numbers here give no sign of durable advantage.
Analysts may still like the name, but the combination of thin returns, heavy leverage and exposure to vehicle production swings leaves too little room for error. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Switzerland and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
APTV trades on a US exchange (the company is based in Switzerland). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-21Distribution$45.69-1.3%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $78.
2026-08-21Distribution$46.30-19.4%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 19.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $78.
2026-07-21Distribution$57.47-16.2%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 16.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $78.
2026-07-18Distribution$68.60+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $78.
2026-07-17Distribution$68.60+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $78.
2026-07-03Distribution$68.60+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$68.60Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
