Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.03, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price177.65 USD
Fair value260.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-21Read Distribution182.15-2.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution after an 11% slide in 6 weeks
2026-09-12Read Markdown203.77-12.8% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 32% rise in 10 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup153.87+15.5% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Revolution Medicines Inc holds its Distribution at $177.65. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 55 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 55 days
Price at the screen
$177.65
Valuation
N/A trailing · -33.70 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.43
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Interest-bearing securities
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
6.74%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 6.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
69.74%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 69.7% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
16.30%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 16.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
410.03%
Below 5%
410.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Revolution Medicines's business is fine, but its cash and interest-bearing securities are about 70% of its assets, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 23% discount to our $260.00 fair value, narrow competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 31.7% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $260.00, with a range of $179.00 to $320.00, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cancer Drug Hopes Clash With Heavy Losses
A firm chasing RAS driven tumours sounds like the future of oncology until you check the books. Revolution Medicines sits at a price that already prices in success yet still posts zero profit margin and a negative seventy seven per cent return on equity. With a narrow moat and an opportunity rating of none we simply pass.
The forward multiple of minus thirty two point five times reflects deep losses that will continue for years. Twenty two analysts may like the pipeline but our screen flags the gap between clinical promise and any path to cash. Ethical clearance does not offset the financial reality.
Risks centre on binary trial outcomes and repeated cash raises that dilute holders. A ten per cent margin to fair value offers little protection when earnings remain negative. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; as a biotechnology name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
RVMD trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Distribution$194.23+1.5%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 243%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (21 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $187. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Distribution$191.31+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 243%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (21 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $187. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Distribution$191.31+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 243%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (21 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $187. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Distribution$191.31+2.3%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 243%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (21 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $187. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Distribution$186.99+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 243%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (21 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $187. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Distribution$186.99+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 243%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (21 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $187. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Distribution$186.99+2.7%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 243%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (21 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $187. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Distribution$182.15+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 243%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (21 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $187. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 41% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 243%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (21 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $187. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-14Markdown$189.76-7.8%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 74% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 243%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (21 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $187. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
