2026-10-25
Greenfire Resources clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 20:03 UTC · 6 Nov
The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Greenfire Resources Ltd
GFR · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $1.7B · 197 employees
Greenfire Resources Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and operation of oil and gas properties in the Athabasca oil sands region of Alberta, Canada.
Not yet scored5.48 USD
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 20:03 UTC · 6 Nov · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price5.48 USD at the 5 Nov 2026 close
- Fair value4.71. Our model only; no analyst estimate to cross-check.
- Our value readOvervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026
- Our regime readMarkup, as of 5 Nov 2026
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- Last reviewed5 Nov 2026 (2 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: $4.31 to $7.18, base estimate $4.71 (screen dated 2026-11-05).
- Trend Markup
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price5.48 USD
Fair value4.71Our model only; no analyst estimate to cross-check.
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-25Read Markup6.98-21.5% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after an 8% rise in 7 days
2026-10-18Read Distribution6.45-15.0% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 5% rise in 7 days
2026-10-11Read Markup6.14-10.7% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 10% slide in 6 weeks
2026-08-30Read Distribution6.81-19.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 7% rise in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its markup label.
Greenfire Resources Ltd holds its Markup at $5.48. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 353 days.
| Phase | Markup |
| Quantitative state | The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 353 days |
| Price at the screen | $5.48 |
| Valuation | N/A trailing · 10.26 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 0.19 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 0.47% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 0.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.00% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 5.79% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 5.8% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
Greenfire Resources clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
Greenfire Resources clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its debt is near-nil, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Our model only; no analyst estimate to cross-check.
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $4.71 fair value estimate, none competitive moat, 21.90% revenue growth.
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 16.3% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $4.71, with a range of $4.31 to $7.18, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsWhy it gives us pause
At 10.3x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. It trades 20% above our $4.71 fair value, so you would be buying at a premium, not a discount. The none moat is real, but quality alone does not make an expensive price cheap.
| Forward P/E | 10.3xcheap for a company growing this fast |
| EPS, trailing | -0.20 |
| EPS, forward | 0.68 |
| Revenue growth | +21.9%strong top-line growth |
| Profit margin | -6.4%currently unprofitable |
| Return on equity | -3.6%not currently earning a positive return on equity |
| FCF yield | -3.53% |
| Debt to equity | 2.80heavy leverage: higher risk if revenue softens |
| Current ratio | 0.96below 1: short-term bills exceed liquid assets |
| Beta | 0.19barely tracks the market's swings |
| Short interest, float | 0.00% |
| 52-week range | 4.15 - 7.16 |
| Moat | NONE |
| Market cap | $1.7B |
| Employees | 197 |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeGFR trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05
Markup $5.66
-18.9% Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 18.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%.
2026-10-25
Markup · changed $6.98
+8.2% Entry 9
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. Since the last review it dropped out of the Titan Ethical 500.
2026-10-18
Distribution · changed $6.45
+5.0% Entry 8
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%.
2026-10-11
Markup · changed $6.14
-5.2% Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 5.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%.
2026-10-02
Distribution $6.48
-4.8% Entry 6
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%.
2026-08-30
Distribution · changed $6.81
+7.2% Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 7.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%.
2026-07-31
Markdown · changed $6.35
+10.2% Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 10.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%.
2026-07-18
Distribution $5.76
+0.0% Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%.
2026-07-03
Distribution $5.76
+0.0% Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02
Distribution $5.76
Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
- Greenfire Resources (NYSE:GFR) Stock Could Be Overvalued As Analyst Upgrades Land Yahoo Finance · 11d ago
- Oilpatch dealmaker on hunt for new takeover target with $1.4-billion fund Yahoo Finance · 18d ago
- 3 Oil And Gas Stocks Linked To Higher Jet Fuel Prices Yahoo Finance · 27d ago
- Is Greenfire Resources (GFR) Getting Too Expensive After A 22% Rise? Yahoo Finance · 26 Sep 2026
- Greenfire Resources (GFR) Closed Its Rights Offering, Is The Valuation Gap A Real Opportunity? Yahoo Finance · 25 Sep 2026
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
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| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $5.82 | -0.2% | · | $998 | -0.2% |
| 2 months | $5.91 | -1.7% | · | $983 | -1.7% |
| 3 months | $6.32 | -8.1% | · | $919 | -8.1% |
| 6 months | $4.63 | +25.5% | · | $1,255 | +25.5% |
| 1 year | $4.59 | +26.6% | · | $1,266 | +26.6% |
| 2 years | $5.78 | +0.5% | · | $1,005 | +0.5% |
| 3 years | $10.43 | -44.3% | · | $557 | -44.3% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever GFR does next, these words stay.
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