2026-10-25
Vermilion Energy clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 20:03 UTC
The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Vermilion Energy Inc.
VET · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $1.6B · 636 employees
Vermilion Energy Inc., engages in petroleum and natural gas, focuses on the acquisition, exploration, development, and optimization of producing properties in North America, Europe, and Australia.
Not yet scored10.50 USD
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 20:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price10.50 USD at the 5 Nov 2026 close
- Fair value8.93. Our model only; no analyst estimate to cross-check.
- Our value readOvervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026
- Our regime readAccumulation, as of 5 Nov 2026
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.48)
- Last reviewed5 Nov 2026 (1 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: $8.17 to $13.61, base estimate $8.93 (screen dated 2026-11-05).
- Trend Accumulation
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 0.48, read 2026-11-05
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price10.50 USD
Fair value8.93Our model only; no analyst estimate to cross-check.
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-21Read Accumulation12.65-17.0% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 6% rise in 3 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markdown11.91-11.8% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 6% slide in 2 weeks
2026-09-16Read Accumulation12.71-17.4% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 12% rise in 4 weeks
2026-08-16Read Markup11.30-7.1% to today Distribution gives way to Markup with volume flow in agreement
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its accumulation label.
Vermilion Energy Inc. holds its Accumulation at $10.50. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 42 days.
| Phase | Accumulation |
| Quantitative state | Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 42 days |
| Price at the screen | $10.50 |
| Valuation | N/A trailing · 8.34 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 0.73 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 24.19% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 24.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.82% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.8% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 5.25% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 5.3% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
Vermilion Energy clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
Vermilion Energy clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 24%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Our model only; no analyst estimate to cross-check.
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $8.93 fair value estimate, 23.10% revenue growth.
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 17.6% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $8.93, with a range of $8.17 to $13.61, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsOil Patch Swings Trap Investors In Cycles
Picture a rig crew watching crude prices lurch from boom to bust every few years. Vermilion sits squarely in that pattern. Revenue edges up 10 percent yet the business posts a 47 percent profit margin loss and negative 21 percent return on equity. Forward earnings trade at 23 times, hardly cheap once the cycle turns. Our screen gives it a clean ethical pass but the opportunity rating stays at none.
The numbers show why we pass. A modest 17 percent gap to our fair value looks attractive only if current earnings hold. In exploration and production that rarely happens. Low multiples at peak profits often signal the top of the cycle rather than a bargain. Two analysts may like the name but we see classic value-trap territory.
Currency moves, reserve write-downs and sudden spending cuts remain live risks. When prices drop the balance sheet can deteriorate fast. We therefore stay clear despite the ethical green light.
Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 8.3xcheap for a company growing this fast |
| EPS, trailing | -2.10 |
| EPS, forward | 1.29 |
| Revenue growth | +23.1%strong top-line growth |
| Profit margin | -24.3%currently unprofitable |
| Return on equity | -18.5%not currently earning a positive return on equity |
| FCF yield | 53.08% |
| Dividend yield | 356.00% |
| Debt to equity | 0.63moderate, manageable leverage |
| Current ratio | 1.00below 1: short-term bills exceed liquid assets |
| Beta | 0.73steadier than the market |
| 52-week range | 7.30 - 14.82 |
| Market cap | $1.6B |
| Employees | 636 |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeVET trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04
Accumulation $12.38
-8.6% Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 8.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%.
2026-10-28
Accumulation $13.55
+7.1% Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. Since the last review it entered the Titan Ethical 500; its composite score rose.
2026-10-21
Accumulation · changed $12.65
+6.6% Entry 8
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 6.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%.
2026-10-14
Markdown $11.87
-0.3% Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%.
2026-10-02
Markdown · changed $11.91
-6.3% Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%.
2026-09-16
Accumulation · changed $12.71
+12.5% Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 12.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%.
2026-08-16
Markup · changed $11.30
+1.3% Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%.
2026-07-18
Distribution $11.15
+0.0% Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%.
2026-07-03
Distribution $11.15
+0.0% Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02
Distribution $11.15
Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
- Vermilion Energy Inc. Confirms Q3 2026 Release Date and Conference Call Details Yahoo Finance · 16d ago
- Oil Above $100 Has Investors Looking At DNO, Vermilion Energy And Santos Stock Yahoo Finance · 18d ago
- Vermilion Energy (TSX:VET) Stock Still Looks Undervalued On Sales Strength Yahoo Finance · 21d ago
- 3 Oil And Gas Stocks To Watch As Crude Prices Jolt Energy Markets Yahoo Finance · 30d ago
- 3 Oil Stocks For Investors Watching Recession Risk And Crude Prices Simply Wall St. · 19 Sep 2026
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
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| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $12.24 | -7.0% | · | $930 | -7.0% |
| 2 months | $12.40 | -8.2% | · | $918 | -8.2% |
| 3 months | $11.78 | -3.4% | $0.10 | $974 | -2.6% |
| 6 months | $8.73 | +30.4% | $0.10 | $1,315 | +31.5% |
| 1 year | $7.48 | +52.2% | $0.19 | $1,548 | +54.8% |
| 2 years | $10.88 | +4.6% | $0.55 | $1,096 | +9.6% |
| 3 years | $11.43 | -0.4% | $0.86 | $1,071 | +7.1% |
| 5 years | $7.92 | +43.7% | $1.15 | $1,581 | +58.1% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever VET does next, these words stay.
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