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The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Vermilion Energy Inc.
VET · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $1.8B · 636 employees
Vermilion Energy Inc., engages in petroleum and natural gas, focuses on the acquisition, exploration, development, and optimization of producing properties in North America, Europe, and Australia.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price11.91 USD
Fair value5.96
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-16Read Accumulation12.71-6.3% to today
2026-08-16Read Markup11.30+5.4% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Distribution11.15+6.8% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Vermilion Energy Inc. holds its Markdown at $11.91. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$11.91
Valuation
N/A trailing · 15.33 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.50
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
24.19%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 24.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.82%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
5.25%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 5.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 50.0% above the base estimate.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Oil Patch Swings Trap Investors In Cycles
Picture a rig crew watching crude prices lurch from boom to bust every few years. Vermilion sits squarely in that pattern. Revenue edges up 10 percent yet the business posts a 47 percent profit margin loss and negative 21 percent return on equity. Forward earnings trade at 23 times, hardly cheap once the cycle turns. Our screen gives it a clean ethical pass but the opportunity rating stays at none.
The numbers show why we pass. A modest 17 percent gap to our fair value looks attractive only if current earnings hold. In exploration and production that rarely happens. Low multiples at peak profits often signal the top of the cycle rather than a bargain. Two analysts may like the name but we see classic value-trap territory.
Currency moves, reserve write-downs and sudden spending cuts remain live risks. When prices drop the balance sheet can deteriorate fast. We therefore stay clear despite the ethical green light.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
VET trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 12.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%.
2026-08-16Markup · changed$11.30+1.3%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%.
2026-07-18Distribution$11.15+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%.
2026-07-03Distribution$11.15+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$11.15Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
