Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 4.19, read 2026-11-05
Ethical passes the values gate
Price59.27 USD
Fair value98.11Our model only; the analyst targets sit too far from the price to cross-check it.
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-18Read Distribution83.73-29.2% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Distribution after a 32% slide in 7 days
2026-10-11Read Accumulation122.54-51.6% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 25% rise in 3 weeks
2026-09-19Read Markdown98.06-39.6% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 42% slide in 11 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup169.05-64.9% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Applied Optoelectronics Inc holds its Distribution at $59.27. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 17 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 17 days
Price at the screen
$59.27
Valuation
N/A trailing · 14.79 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
3.84
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
21.23%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 21.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
38.56%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 38.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.39%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Applied Optoelectronics clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 21%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our model only; the analyst targets sit too far from the price to cross-check it.
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 40% discount to our $98.11 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 86.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 39.6% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $98.11, with a range of $89.74 to $118.54, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Fibre lasers power data but profits lag
Picture every video call or cloud backup racing through hair-thin glass strands. Applied Optoelectronics builds the lasers and modules that turn electrical signals into light for those links, and its revenue has jumped 51 percent as demand rises.
The shares trade at 21.5 times forward earnings with a 39 percent gap to our fair value, yet the firm still posts a negative 9 percent profit margin and negative 6 percent return on equity. A narrow moat and the absence of any opportunity rating keep us from getting excited despite the ethical pass.
High growth in a competitive field often fades when customers shift orders or prices fall, and the current losses show how quickly cash can disappear. The 5-analyst median target of 160 offers little comfort against that backdrop.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AAOI trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Distribution$59.27-7.3%Entry 19
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 965%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $151. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Distribution$63.97+2.4%Entry 18
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 965%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $151. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Distribution$62.50-9.5%Entry 17
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 9.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 965%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $151. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Distribution$69.05+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 965%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $151. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Distribution$69.05+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 965%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $151. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Distribution$69.05-12.8%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 12.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 965%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $151. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Distribution$79.19-3.7%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 965%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $151. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Distribution$82.22+20.8%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 20.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 965%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $151. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Distribution$68.07-18.7%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 18.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 965%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $151. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 31.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 152% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 965%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $151. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.