An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Expro Group Holdings N.V.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $16.48
Expro Group Holdings N.V. holds its Distribution at $16.48.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 189 days
Price
$16.48
Valuation
51.50 trailing · 14.56 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.99
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$16.48
51.50 P/E · 14.56 fwd
Our fair value
$12.78
22% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$16.00
-3% to current
Target low $16.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $20.00
▲ current $16.48 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$16.48
you are here
Conservative
$12.78
-22%
Analyst avg
$16.00
-3%
Our fair value
$12.78
-22%
Analyst high
$20.00
+21%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Revenue growth
-6.00%
Profit margin
2.32%
Debt to equity
11.37
Analyst consensus
Buy · 5 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Oil services firm trading above its worth
Picture a rig crew waiting for the next price spike to keep the cash flowing. Expro sits in that exact spot, offering well construction and testing services across regions where activity tracks crude prices rather than steady demand. The business shows negative revenue growth, wafer-thin margins and returns on equity that barely register, while the shares sit above our fair value with no opportunity rating attached.
The forward multiple looks modest at first glance, yet the company is cycling through lower activity and the market is already pricing in a recovery that may not arrive on schedule. Analysts lean buy with a target near the current price, but that view overlooks how thin the returns remain even at current levels. The ethical screen clears without issue.
Cyclical businesses often flash low multiples right when earnings peak, and this one carries the classic warning signs of thin profitability and revenue already sliding. Any rebound would need sustained higher oil prices and fresh contracts that have yet to materialise in volume. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
XPRO trades on the NYSE. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $18. Entered 2026-07-18 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Distribution$16.46+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-03Distribution$16.46+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$16.46Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$15.86
+3.5%
·
$1,035
+3.5%
2 months
$16.69
-1.7%
·
$983
-1.7%
3 months
$15.96
+2.8%
·
$1,028
+2.8%
6 months
$14.64
+12.1%
·
$1,121
+12.1%
1 year
$9.47
+73.3%
·
$1,733
+73.3%
2 years
$21.38
-23.3%
·
$768
-23.3%
3 years
$18.45
-11.1%
·
$889
-11.1%
5 years
$20.34
-19.3%
·
$807
-19.3%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever XPRO does next, these words stay.
Expro Group Holdings N.V. · XPRO · Distribution · $16.48
Recorded 2026-07-19 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
