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The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
NextDecade Corporation
NEXT · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $1.7B · 360 employees
NextDecade Corporation, an energy company, engages in the construction and development activities related to the liquefaction of natural gas in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
5.80 USD
Price as of 6 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-06 · the tape above runs as of 02:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price5.80 USD at the 6 Nov 2026 close
Our value readUndervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.58, read 2026-11-07
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price5.80 USD
Fair value6.97
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Markup6.25-7.2% to today Markdown gives way to Markup after an 11% slide in 5 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markdown7.02-17.4% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-09-06Read Accumulation7.36-21.2% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation
2026-08-06Read Distribution7.68-24.5% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 9% slide in 5 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
NextDecade Corporation holds its Distribution at $5.80. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$5.80
Valuation
N/A trailing · 6.72 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.39
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
69.67%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 69.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.16%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 1.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
NextDecade's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 70% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when NEXT's ethical verdict changes
Today NEXT does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 17% discount to our $6.97 fair value.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 16.8% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $6.97, with a range of $6.30 to $8.02, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
LNG build dreams priced far beyond reality
Picture a crew pouring concrete for a giant export terminal while the energy price tape flips every quarter. NextDecade sits in that exact spot, yet the shares trade at 118 times forward earnings with zero profit margins and a negative 19 percent return on equity. Our fair value sits 41 percent below the current price and the opportunity rating is none, so we pass without hesitation.
The business is still years from meaningful cash flow, and the sector's boom-bust rhythm makes any early valuation look heroic. Six analysts may carry a buy consensus, but peak-cycle multiples in oil and gas equipment have a habit of collapsing once projects slip or gas prices normalise.
Ethical data is too thin for a clean screen, and cyclical value traps often hide behind exactly this kind of thin coverage. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NEXT trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Markup · changed$6.25-0.6%Entry 16
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $9. Since the last review it entered the Titan Ethical 500; its composite score rose.
2026-10-29Markdown$6.29+4.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $9. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markdown$6.05+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $9. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markdown$6.05+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $9. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markdown$6.05+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $9. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$6.05+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $9. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markdown$6.05+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $9. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$6.05+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $9. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown$6.05-1.1%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $9. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markdown$6.12-12.8%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 12.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $9.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
