NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,412+0.27%BTC$77,965+2.04%VIX15.48+0.26%live tape · as of 13:00 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Defensive · Tobacco
Turning Point Brands, Inc.
TPB · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $1.5B · 484 employees
Turning Point Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes branded consumer products in the United States and Canada.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
75.22 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-07
Screened 2026-09-07 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Turning Point Brands, Inc. holds its Markdown at $75.22. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 6 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-07
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 6 days
Price at the screen
$75.22
Valuation
32.70 trailing · 31.08 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.94
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited business activity: Tobacco
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited business activity: Tobacco
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-07 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 15.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +66% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-07 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Tobacco maker clears hurdles yet fails the screen
Picture a smoker in a small town reaching for familiar rolling papers or chewing tobacco at the counter. Those steady purchases keep Turning Point Brands growing revenue at 17 percent with a 12 percent profit margin and 23 percent return on equity. The numbers look solid on paper and the shares trade below the analyst median target, yet the business sits squarely in prohibited tobacco activity.
We pass for one clear reason. The ethical screen exists to keep us out of sectors that profit directly from harmful products, regardless of growth rates or margins. Forward earnings sit at 29 times and the moat remains unknown, but none of that matters once the screen flags the core activity.
Risk here is straightforward. Tobacco faces rising regulation, litigation and shifting consumer habits that can compress volumes quickly. The margin of safety versus our fair value offers little protection when the entire category carries permanent ethical exclusion. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TPB trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-15Markdown · changed$75.22-8.8%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 8.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $130.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $130.
2026-07-18Markup$82.55+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $130.
2026-07-03Markup$82.55+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$82.55Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
