RLX · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $2.2B · 897 employees
RLX Technology Inc., through its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells e-vapor products in the People's Republic of China and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
1.80 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-07
Screened 2026-09-07 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
RLX Technology Inc. holds its Markdown at $1.80. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-07
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$1.80
Valuation
16.36 trailing · 11.07 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.15
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited business activity: Tobacco
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited business activity: Tobacco
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-07 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 68.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +55% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-07 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
China's e-cigarette maker fails the ethical test
Every time a vaper in Shanghai swaps a cartridge the money flows through RLX Technology, a fast-growing maker of rechargeable and disposable e-vapor devices. Revenue jumped 107 percent last year and the forward multiple sits at just 12.3 times, yet none of that matters once the ethical screen is applied.
We pass without hesitation. The business sits squarely inside prohibited tobacco activity, which overrides any margin of safety implied by a $3.15 fair value against the $2.05 price or the 22 percent profit margin. Strong analyst targets cannot rescue a name that fails at the first gate.
ROE of only 6 percent already signals limited competitive strength, and the unknown moat adds further uncertainty. Currency and regulatory risk in China would sit on any holder anyway, but the ethical breach ends the conversation before those factors are weighed. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to China and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
RLX trades on the NYSE (the company is based in China). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-11Markdown$1.80-8.2%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 8.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $3.
2026-08-11Markdown · changed$1.96-4.4%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $3.
2026-07-18Distribution$2.05+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $3.
2026-07-03Distribution$2.05+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$2.05Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.