2026-10-25
SPS Commerce, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 23:21 UTC · 4 Nov
The Screen · Technology · Software - Application
SPS Commerce, Inc.
SPSC · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $3.0B · 2,948 employees
SPS Commerce, Inc.
Not yet scored85.24 USD
Price as of 4 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-04 · the tape above runs as of 23:21 UTC · 4 Nov · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price85.24 USD at the 4 Nov 2026 close
- Our value readUndervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026
- Our regime readAccumulation, as of 4 Nov 2026
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans to puts (put/call 2.21)
- Last reviewed4 Nov 2026 (1 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: $102.50 to $170.48, base estimate $102.50 (screen dated 2026-11-04).
- Trend Accumulation
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 2.21, read 2026-11-05
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price85.24 USD
Fair value102.50
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-18Read Accumulation86.82-1.8% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 5% rise in 7 days
2026-10-11Read Markup82.35+3.5% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since September
2026-10-02Read Distribution81.65+4.4% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 7% rise in 7 weeks
2026-08-13Read Markup76.41+11.6% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 38% rise in 6 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its accumulation label.
SPS Commerce, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $85.24. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 25 days.
| Phase | Accumulation |
| Quantitative state | Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 25 days |
| Price at the screen | $85.24 |
| Valuation | 38.05 trailing · 15.64 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 0.65 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 0.24% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 0.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.00% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 18.76% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 18.8% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
SPS Commerce, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
SPS Commerce, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its debt is near-nil, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 17% discount to our $102.50 fair value, 4.10% revenue growth.
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 16.8% discount to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −4% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere our models see it going: fair-value estimate $102.50, with a range of $102.50 to $170.48, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsRetail supply chain platform lacks standout growth
Every time a retailer needs to sync orders with far-flung suppliers and logistics firms, the data has to move cleanly across dozens of systems. SPS Commerce runs the cloud platform that handles those connections. Yet the business shows revenue growth of just 6% alongside a 12% profit margin and 10% ROE, numbers that leave it short of any real opportunity despite clearing the ethical screen.
Forward earnings sit at 12.6x while eleven analysts hold a median target of $60, below the current price. The 14% margin of safety to our fair value does not change the fact that growth remains too modest to excite.
Currency moves and competition from larger software names could squeeze those already thin returns further, and the unknown moat offers little defence if bigger platforms expand. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 15.6xexpensive even after accounting for its growth |
| Trailing P/E | 38.1xexpensive: the price assumes strong growth ahead |
| EPS, trailing | 2.24 |
| EPS, forward | 5.45 |
| Revenue growth | +4.1%slow but positive growth |
| Profit margin | 10.7%thin but positive margins |
| Return on equity | 8.8%a modest return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | 6.44% |
| Debt to equity | 0.71moderate, manageable leverage |
| Current ratio | 2.25comfortably covers its short-term bills |
| Beta | 0.65steadier than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.10% |
| 52-week range | 49.04 - 96.54 |
| Market cap | $3.0B |
| Employees | 2,948 |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeSPSC trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-29
Accumulation $92.63
+3.6% Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $68. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28
Accumulation $89.38
+0.0% Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $68. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27
Accumulation $89.38
+0.0% Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $68. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26
Accumulation $89.38
+0.0% Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $68. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25
Accumulation $89.38
+0.0% Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $68. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24
Accumulation $89.38
+0.0% Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $68. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23
Accumulation $89.38
+0.0% Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $68. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22
Accumulation $89.38
+2.9% Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $68. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18
Accumulation · changed $86.82
+5.4% Entry 8
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $68.
2026-10-11
Markup · changed $82.35
+0.9% Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $68.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
- Descartes Systems Group (DSGX) vs. SPSC and TRMB: Can Its Global Logistics Network Drive Sustainable Growth? Yahoo Finance · 4d ago
- SPS Commerce: 3 Key Takeaways for Long-Term Investors Yahoo Finance · 4d ago
- SPS Commerce (SPSC) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript Yahoo Finance · 5d ago
- SPS Commerce, Inc. Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary Yahoo Finance · 6d ago
- What SPS Commerce (SPSC) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call Yahoo Finance · 6d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
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| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $52.78 | +5.5% | · | $1,055 | +5.5% |
| 2 months | $51.45 | +8.2% | · | $1,082 | +8.2% |
| 3 months | $60.71 | -8.3% | · | $917 | -8.3% |
| 6 months | $85.96 | -35.2% | · | $648 | -35.2% |
| 1 year | $144.50 | -61.5% | · | $385 | -61.5% |
| 2 years | $183.46 | -69.7% | · | $304 | -69.7% |
| 3 years | $172.09 | -67.6% | · | $324 | -67.6% |
| 5 years | $97.80 | -43.1% | · | $569 | -43.1% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever SPSC does next, these words stay.
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