Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.32, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price67.96 USD
Fair value72.53
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Accumulation54.68+24.3% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation with volume flow in agreement
2026-09-21Read Markdown55.26+23.0% to today Markup gives way to Markdown
2026-08-21Read Markup57.53+18.1% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 23% rise in 7 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution46.65+45.7% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $67.96. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 19 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 19 days
Price at the screen
$67.96
Valuation
30.34 trailing · 22.07 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.70
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
49.88%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 49.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
51.60%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 51.6% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
4.51%
Below 5%
Only 4.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Alarm.com Holdings,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 50% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens. Its receivables are also high.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 6% discount to our $72.53 fair value, 9.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 6.3% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $72.53, with a range of $60.04 to $100.07, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Connected homes need better rails than this
Picture a suburban house where the alarm, lights and cameras talk to each other without dropping signals. Alarm.com sits underneath that everyday convenience, selling software to security firms across North America. The shares sit 24 percent below our fair value while the business grows revenue at 11 percent, earns a 12 percent profit margin and delivers 15 percent ROE, all on a forward multiple of 17.9 times.
Those numbers explain the modest appeal. The company clears our ethical screen without flags and shows real cash generation from a sticky residential customer base. Yet five analysts see little upside, with a median target only seven points above the current price, leaving the opportunity rating at none.
The unknown competitive moat and single-digit growth leave little margin for error if larger players copy the model or housing slows. Currency and customer concentration add further friction that is easy to overlook until it bites. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ALRM trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Accumulation$65.46+0.9%Entry 18
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $59. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Accumulation$64.86+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $59. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$64.86+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $59. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Accumulation$64.86+0.1%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $59. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$64.81+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $59. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$64.81+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $59. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$64.81+8.8%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 8.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $59. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation$59.54+3.3%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $59.
2026-10-18Accumulation$57.64+5.4%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $59.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $59.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
