Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 19:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $55.26. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 20 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 20 days
Price at the screen
$55.26
Valuation
24.45 trailing · 18.00 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.76
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
49.88%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 49.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
51.60%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 51.6% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
4.51%
Below 5%
Only 4.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 31.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +18% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Connected homes need better rails than this
Picture a suburban house where the alarm, lights and cameras talk to each other without dropping signals. Alarm.com sits underneath that everyday convenience, selling software to security firms across North America. The shares sit 24 percent below our fair value while the business grows revenue at 11 percent, earns a 12 percent profit margin and delivers 15 percent ROE, all on a forward multiple of 17.9 times.
Those numbers explain the modest appeal. The company clears our ethical screen without flags and shows real cash generation from a sticky residential customer base. Yet five analysts see little upside, with a median target only seven points above the current price, leaving the opportunity rating at none.
The unknown competitive moat and single-digit growth leave little margin for error if larger players copy the model or housing slows. Currency and customer concentration add further friction that is easy to overlook until it bites. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ALRM trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-21Markup · changed$57.53+8.1%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $59.
2026-07-21Distribution$53.20+14.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 14.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $59.
2026-07-18Distribution$46.65+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $59.
2026-07-17Distribution$46.65+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $59.
2026-07-03Distribution$46.65+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$46.65Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
