2026-10-25
Marqeta, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 04:07 UTC
The Screen · Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Marqeta, Inc.
MQ · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $2.0B · 938 employees
Marqeta, Inc.
Not yet scored18.60 USD
Price as of 4 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-04 · the tape above runs as of 04:07 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price18.60 USD at the 4 Nov 2026 close
- Our value readOvervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026
- Our regime readAccumulation, as of 5 Nov 2026
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.02)
- Last reviewed4 Nov 2026 (2 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: $16.20 to $18.69, base estimate $16.25 (screen dated 2026-11-04).
- Trend Accumulation
- Insiders insiders sold, $23,449, latest filing 2026-10-15
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 0.02, read 2026-11-05
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price18.60 USD
Fair value16.25
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Accumulation15.59+19.3% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation after an 11% slide in 8 weeks
2026-08-05Read Markup17.49+6.3% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 357% rise in 5 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution3.83+385.6% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its accumulation label.
Marqeta, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $18.60. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 87 days.
| Phase | Accumulation |
| Quantitative state | The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 87 days |
| Price at the screen | $18.60 |
| Valuation | 186.00 trailing · 37.20 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 0.97 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 1.07% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 1.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 4.10% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 4.1% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 49.24% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 49.2% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
Marqeta, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
Marqeta, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its debt is near-nil, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades above our $16.25 fair value estimate, 17.00% revenue growth.
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 14.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +5% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere our models see it going: fair-value estimate $16.25, with a range of $16.20 to $18.69, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsCard issuing platform priced ahead of its profits
Picture a young company handling the back end for card programmes that bigger fintechs and banks prefer not to build themselves. Marqeta sits in that niche, yet its shares trade at 17.49 against a fair value of 15.21, a margin that already sits in negative territory. With no profits, zero return on equity and revenue expanding only 19 percent, the valuation at 41.6 times forward earnings leaves little room for error and explains why the opportunity rating stays at none.
The business clears our ethical screen without issue, and ten analysts lean toward a hold with a 20 median target. Still, an unknown competitive moat and the absence of any margin improvement make it hard to argue the current price reflects durable cash generation rather than hope for future scale.
High multiples on unprofitable growth carry the usual risk that any slowdown in issuance volumes or tougher competition could compress the rating quickly. Currency swings and execution slips in a crowded payments market add further pressure. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 37.2xexpensive even after accounting for its growth |
| Trailing P/E | 186.0xexpensive: the price assumes strong growth ahead |
| EPS, trailing | 0.10 |
| EPS, forward | 0.50 |
| Revenue growth | +17.0%steady growth |
| Profit margin | 1.5%barely profitable |
| Return on equity | 1.3%a modest return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | 7.80% |
| Debt to equity | 0.94moderate, manageable leverage |
| Current ratio | 1.66healthy short-term liquidity |
| Beta | 0.97steadier than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.06% |
| 52-week range | 14.80 - 22.28 |
| Market cap | $2.0B |
| Employees | 938 |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeMQ trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03
Accumulation $18.10
+0.0% Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 78% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $5. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02
Accumulation $18.10
+0.0% Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 78% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $5. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01
Accumulation $18.10
-4.0% Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 78% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $5. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31
Accumulation $18.85
+0.0% Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 78% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $5. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30
Accumulation $18.85
+0.0% Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 78% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $5. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29
Accumulation $18.85
+0.3% Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 78% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $5. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28
Accumulation $18.80
+0.0% Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 78% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $5. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27
Accumulation $18.80
-1.0% Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 78% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $5. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21
Accumulation $18.99
+4.9% Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 83% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $5. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-14
Accumulation $18.11
+16.2% Entry 7
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 16.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $5. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
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| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Sumner Crystal | See Remarks | S - Sale | 1,250 | $23,449 |
| 2026-09-16 | Cummings Martha | Dir | S - Sale | 713 | $11,415 |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $4.05 | -5.7% | · | $943 | -5.7% |
| 2 months | $3.85 | -0.7% | · | $994 | -0.7% |
| 3 months | $3.99 | -4.1% | · | $959 | -4.1% |
| 6 months | $4.99 | -23.4% | · | $767 | -23.4% |
| 1 year | $5.48 | -30.2% | · | $698 | -30.2% |
| 2 years | $5.32 | -28.1% | · | $719 | -28.1% |
| 3 years | $4.73 | -19.1% | · | $809 | -19.1% |
| 5 years | $31.50 | -87.9% | · | $121 | -87.9% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever MQ does next, these words stay.
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