2026-10-25
Mach Natural Resources LP clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 20:03 UTC
The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Mach Natural Resources LP
MNR · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $1.7B · 840 employees
Mach Natural Resources LP, an independent upstream oil and gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGL) reserves.
Not yet scored9.94 USD
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 20:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price9.94 USD at the 5 Nov 2026 close
- Fair valueUnder review: our model's value is 1.36x the price, above our 1.35x limit.
- Our regime readMarkdown, as of 5 Nov 2026
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans to puts (put/call 1.71)
- Last reviewed5 Nov 2026 (1 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: range not available (screen dated 2026-11-05).
- Trend Markdown
- Insiders insiders bought, latest filing 2026-09-15
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 1.71, read 2026-11-05
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price9.94 USD
Fair valueUnder review
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Markdown10.02-0.8% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 6% slide in 8 days
2026-10-28Read Accumulation10.67-6.8% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-21Read Markdown10.84-8.3% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since September
2026-10-02Read Distribution10.97-9.4% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 12% slide in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its markdown label.
Mach Natural Resources LP holds its Markdown at $9.94. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 13 days.
| Phase | Markdown · caution |
| Quantitative state | Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 13 days |
| Price at the screen | $9.94 |
| Valuation | 16.70 trailing · 7.50 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | -0.39 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 30.81% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 30.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.00% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 7.23% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 7.2% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
Mach Natural Resources LP clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
Mach Natural Resources LP clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 31%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Fair value under review. Our model's value is 1.36x the price, above our 1.35x limit. We show no fair value, margin of safety or value read built on it until the review clears.
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
The Street's RangeThird-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +61% from the screen price.
Where our models see it going: no fair-value estimate yet, range not available, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsOil Patch Numbers Hide a Classic Trap
Picture an oil pump jack nodding away in Oklahoma. Every barrel it lifts depends on prices that swing like a wrecking ball, and Mach Natural Resources sits squarely in that rhythm. The shares trade at 9.4 times forward earnings with revenue up 44 percent, yet the business delivers only an 8 percent profit margin and 6 percent return on equity. Those figures already signal thin returns even before prices turn.
We pass because this is the textbook cyclical value trap. A low multiple looks attractive only when earnings sit near a peak. Once oil or gas prices normalise, the same earnings can fall sharply and the multiple expands with them. Analyst targets above $19 ignore that simple math, and the unknown moat leaves no cushion when volumes or realisations disappoint.
Commodity swings remain the dominant risk. A sustained drop in energy prices would compress cash flow fast, and the modest balance-sheet returns offer little protection. Ethical screens clear, but the industry cycle does not.
Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 7.5xcheap for a company growing this fast |
| Trailing P/E | 16.7xreasonably valued |
| EPS, trailing | 0.60 |
| EPS, forward | 1.34 |
| Revenue growth | +63.6%growing very fast |
| Profit margin | 7.7%thin but positive margins |
| Return on equity | 6.3%a modest return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | -18.12% |
| Dividend yield | 1,373.00% |
| Debt to equity | 0.65moderate, manageable leverage |
| Current ratio | 0.88below 1: short-term bills exceed liquid assets |
| Beta | -0.39barely tracks the market's swings |
| Short interest, float | 0.03% |
| 52-week range | 10.01 - 15.02 |
| Market cap | $1.7B |
| Employees | 840 |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeMNR trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05
Markdown · changed $10.02
-3.2% Entry 17
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $19. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04
Accumulation $10.35
-2.3% Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $19. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03
Accumulation $10.59
+0.0% Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $19. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02
Accumulation $10.59
+0.0% Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $19. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01
Accumulation $10.59
-2.6% Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $19. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31
Accumulation $10.87
+0.0% Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $19. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30
Accumulation $10.87
+0.0% Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $19. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29
Accumulation $10.87
+1.9% Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $19. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28
Accumulation · changed $10.67
-1.6% Entry 9
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $19. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-21
Markdown · changed $10.84
+1.0% Entry 8
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $19. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
- Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: What to Know Ahead of Q3 Release Yahoo Finance · 8d ago
- Factors You Need to Know Ahead of Diamondback's Q3 Earnings Release Yahoo Finance · 10d ago
- Mach Natural Resources LP Announces Earnings Release and Conference Call Schedule for Third Quarter 2026 Yahoo Finance · 15d ago
- Will Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report? Yahoo Finance · 17d ago
- Mach Natural Resources (MNR) Stock Looks Fully Priced On Its 7% Gain Yahoo Finance · 20d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
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| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | McMullen William Wallace | See Remarks, 10% | P - Purchase | 34,514 | $388,902 |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $13.43 | +0.1% | $0.64 | $1,048 | +4.8% |
| 2 months | $12.10 | +11.1% | $0.64 | $1,163 | +16.3% |
| 3 months | $12.85 | +4.6% | $0.64 | $1,096 | +9.6% |
| 6 months | $10.95 | +22.7% | $1.17 | $1,334 | +33.4% |
| 1 year | $11.92 | +12.7% | $1.82 | $1,280 | +28.0% |
| 2 years | $14.45 | -7.0% | $4.61 | $1,249 | +24.9% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever MNR does next, these words stay.
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