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The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Kosmos Energy Ltd.
KOS · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $1.6B · 216 employees
Kosmos Energy Ltd., a deepwater exploration and production company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas properties.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
2.63 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-21 · not a live quote
Screened 2026-09-21 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 2.63 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 2.78, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price2.63 USD
Fair value2.78
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-03Read Accumulation2.87-8.4% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution2.87-8.4% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Kosmos Energy Ltd. holds its Markdown at $2.63. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 28 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 28 days
Price at the screen
$2.63
Valuation
N/A trailing · 8.65 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.73
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
65.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 65.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.52%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
2.39%
Below 5%
Only 2.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 5.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +14% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Deepwater Oil Chaser Sits at Fair Value
Picture a crew drilling far offshore in Ghana and Senegal. Every barrel they pull up has to survive oil price swings that have wrecked balance sheets in this business for decades. Kosmos shows 28% revenue growth but still posts a 59% negative profit margin and 101% negative return on equity. At the current price it matches our fair value exactly, which leaves no margin of safety in a sector known for value traps where low multiples simply mark peak earnings about to fall.
The ethical screen clears the company, yet the opportunity rating stays at none. Ten analysts sit on a hold rating with a three-dollar median target that already bakes in recovery hopes. Forward earnings sit at 12.8 times, but those earnings have yet to turn sustainably positive after years of exploration spend.
Oil prices remain the dominant driver and can erase apparent cheapness overnight. Currency moves, local political risk and the need for constant drilling capital add further pressure. The market is not mispricing the shares so much as waiting for the next cycle turn. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
KOS trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 28.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 46% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $3.
2026-08-04Distribution$2.24-22.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 22.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 46% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $3.
2026-07-18Distribution$2.87+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 46% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $3.
2026-07-03Distribution$2.87+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$2.87Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
