Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.02, read 2026-11-05
Ethical passes the values gate
Price14.21 USD
Fair value11.18Our model only; only one analyst covers it, too few to cross-check it.
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Distribution12.75+11.5% to today Accumulation gives way to Distribution
2026-10-21Read Accumulation12.75+11.5% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Distribution12.39+14.7% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 15% slide in 9 weeks
2026-07-31Read Markup14.51-2.1% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 13% rise in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
GPGI, Inc. holds its Markup at $14.21. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$14.21
Valuation
N/A trailing · 10.16 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.95
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
0.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
22.16%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 22.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
4.12%
Below 5%
Only 4.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
GPGI, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its debt is near-nil, and interest is about 4% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when GPGI's ethical verdict changes
Today GPGI passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our model only; only one analyst covers it, too few to cross-check it.
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades above our $11.18 fair value estimate.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 27.1% above the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $11.18, with a range of $11.18 to $12.86, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Metal Cards Mask a Classic Cyclical Trap
Picture a workshop stamping out premium metal cards and injection molds that only sell when factories are spending. GPGI sits on a forward multiple of 11.3 times yet delivers zero profit margins and a return on equity of minus 26 percent. We pass because the low multiple does not signal value, it flags an industry at peak demand where earnings are likely to fall.
The business mixes sustainable molding equipment with its CompoSecure metal card line, both exposed to industrial cycles. Two analysts see a $20 target but offer no consensus rating, and the shares already sit 5 percent above our fair value. An ethical pass changes nothing when the core numbers show no durable profit engine.
Low multiples in metal fabrication often mark the top of the cycle, not a bargain. Currency swings, weak demand and thin margins can compress earnings fast from here. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GPGI trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Distribution$12.78+9.4%Entry 17
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 9.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Distribution$11.68-0.4%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Distribution$11.73+4.9%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Distribution$11.18+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Distribution$11.18+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Distribution$11.18-3.6%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Distribution$11.60+4.1%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Distribution$11.14-12.6%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 12.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.